SFH up 5.9% YoY, is now the time to sell?

[Matt Higgins]

I was listenting to a couple of old podcast this week about how the housing market is getting close to the end of a cycle (one from 2015, one from early 16).  Flippers complaining about the lack of deals and margins squeezes do to lack of inventory.  Veterans of the industry talking about how newbies are being saved by incredible and unusual appreciation in home values.  I also listened to an investor from Florida talk about how he was only 50% leveraged before he lost everything when he thought he held an overly conservative position with his assets. 

I started buying right after the crash and haven't had to experience the headache of trying to rent my property in a down market.  I haven't had to watch my net worth on paper be cut in half.  I haven't had to sell a property for less than I paid for it.  My question is, when is the music going to stop?  After the stock market tanks?  When builders catch up with demand?  

My goal was to purchase 20 units this year. I have a potential 12 unit deal in the works that would get me to my number. Is it time to maybe sell a couple of these older SFR that I have purchased? They require more Capx, they are a little further out and more difficult to manage and rent than some of my other properties. These are properties that I own outright, don't need the cash flow, and aren't helping me with my taxes.

If so, take the profits and 1031 into the next deal or payoff some properties and wait for the next cycle?  In the past year I had conversations with two successful, long time business men who each expressed their interest to hold on "one more cycle" before they retire or sell their business.  They are both in "down cycles" right now (one agriculture and one in the oil business), but they both have been doing it long enough to see the light at the end of the tunnel.   Made me think about where my real estate business is at today.  People moving out of my rentals to put 3% down on a house  (after they had paid me 50$ late fees).  Seems like it might be time to sell a few things off, save money, and crush it when the music stops.