Statistical analysis of capital growth factors

[Jacob Rothfield]

Hi,

I'm interested in predicting capital growth of property prices - finding the leading economic indicators that increase the likelihood of property prices increasing and/or not falling (increasing gains but also reducing risks).

The hypothesis is that there are some macroeconomic factors both in the demand and supply side that cause markets and therefore property prices to move in aggregate.

I would like to ask other BP members if you have done any research or can recommend any papers/articles that look at casual/leading factors?

My hypothesis is a process like this occurs, (this is likely too simple though to be predictive):

Population Growth (Natural) ---> GDP Growth ---> Job Creation ---> Domestic Migration ---> Increased Personal Income ---> High Property Prices (assuming constant supply)

Macroeconomic Demand Factors (individually or in specific combination):

• Increasing population
• Positive net migration
• Increasing GDP
• Increasing total jobs
• Increasing Personal Income/Capita
• Increasing average earnings/job
• Industry Diversity
• Favoured Industries

Microeconomic Demand Factors:

• Schools
• Crime
• Walkability
• Changing demographics/area reputation
• etc

I look forward to your comments.

Regards,

Jacob