Investing in Florida

[Sergio P Ramos]

I've been hearing alot about the market in Florida. Mostly about the collapse in Florida's market. Am I just hearing rumors or is something going on? Is anyone investing in Florida right now?

[Bob Stevens]

Quote from @Sergio P Ramos:

I've been hearing alot about the market in Florida. Mostly about the collapse in Florida's market. Am I just hearing rumors or is something going on? Is anyone investing in Florida right now?

 I called it 6 months ago, It was starting and now getting worse. Im sticking with Clev, Over the last 10 years it has treated me very well. 

[Shane Kluiter]

I haven't heard of a significant market collapse anywhere.

I just had a client in FL get about 20% more on a refinance appraisal than they expected.

Maybe some small market are going down but overall we are seeing things stabilize if anything.

Rates went down recently for us and many other lenders which also supported values remaining where they are.

[Bob Stevens]

Quote from @Shane Kluiter:

I haven't heard of a significant market collapse anywhere.

I just had a client in FL get about 20% more on a refinance appraisal than they expected.

Maybe some small market are going down but overall we are seeing things stabilize if anything.

Rates went down recently for us and many other lenders which also supported values remaining where they are.

Stabilizing?? UMM NO. 1600 listing just in Delray, , price drops everywhere. Sure there may be pockets here and there but most of Fl is correcting especially the condo market. One in my building was 850, 4 months ago, now 610k, BTW where is the prop located he got a 20% higher then expected? So expecting 500k got 600k? 

[Elias Halvorson]

I dont think it has collapsed yet, but I think it will soon. This hurricane season will likely be devastating. Soon people will be spending nearly as much on insurance as they spend on their mortgage... Doesnt make sense. I sold all my rental properties in Mississippi for the same reason. 

[Andrew Lax]

My single family home portfolio is in Broward County ... 

More inventory, soft pricing, etc...

Collapse ?  Highly doubt it 

But I could see a 20% pullback ... 

South Florida is a different animal from the rest of the State.. 

[Lore Postman]

I have a 3bd/2ba on the market in Pensacola now. The price is $100k under the appraised value and it's likely to fall further. Ouch! Becoming a great time to buy. ;)

[Jeremy England]

No collapse here in Pensacola. Neighbor recently sold for 950k

That was about 15% from their list price but still.  

But i hope oos people do steer clear of florida investing.  More for the folks that live here

[Stephen Reyes]

Quote from @Lore Postman:

I have a 3bd/2ba on the market in Pensacola now. The price is $100k under the appraised value and it's likely to fall further. Ouch! Becoming a great time to buy. ;)

What are the details on this property?  I am still having trouble finding reasonably priced rentals in the Pensacola market. 

[Matt Jones]

Quote from @Jeremy England:

No collapse here in Pensacola. Neighbor recently sold for 950k

That was about 15% from their list price but still.  

But i hope oos people do steer clear of florida investing.  More for the folks that live here

I did a deep dive yesterday and prices are stagnant to up slightly in basically every Pensacola and Santa Rosa County zip code so you are 100% correct that we aren't seeing a collapse currently.  What we are seeing is a massive increase in the number of properties for sale which has resulted in more competition between sellers and more of a balanced market than we've seen in a long time.

If we continue to have a high number of properties for sale and a shortage of active and able buyer's then we should have some really solid buying opportunities even if the overall market doesn't drop.  Motivated sellers will have to price aggressively to stand out in a crowded market so there will be deals to be had if the current trends continue.

[Jason Rash]

I'm an agent in South Florida, and an investor - here's what I see and what I know.

I just sold an Airbnb for 1.3 million in West Palm. This airbnb had everything, totally perfect. So desirable in fact that an agent fro Ryan Serhant's office personally flew down to check it out and make an offer. We got under contract within 14 days of listing and closed 2 weeks later. I marketed this property as a business - as it brought in 155K in gross revenues , could go to 180K with some extra work.

I see many people who got into the airbnb game 3 years ago trying to unload now, almost at cost. When I comped out the property there were 7 others trying to unload. I held open houses - people flooded in. I shot IG reels and Youtube Content - people DM'd me about the property. 

Prices are softening by 10%-20% - not because the demand isn't there - people want to buy. Most don't have the capability to buy with IR so high. 

It should be noted that many investors came through my property, loved how I was marketing it, but this wasn't the perfect investment for them.

What's happening is that there is ZERO competition - so buyers/ investors/ are subconsciously waiting on the sideline for someone to give them the all clear. 

I honestly see them raising IR by end of year - prices are still increasing, especially for insurance premiums. 

I also see demand surging at the first rate cut. We are in a reverse frog boil environment  - Instead of boiling to death slowly they raised IR so fast that people are unsure/unclear when it's a good time to come back in - they will more than likely lower rates 1/8 to 1/4 point at a time, incredibly slow to allow the market drip back to normal preventing a surge

I'm also seeing people drop $5,600,000 in cash to $13,000,000 in cash like it's nothing

Cash rules down in florida even on 889K deals 

[Ryan Cleary]

Quote from @Jason Rash:

I'm an agent in South Florida, and an investor - here's what I see and what I know.

I just sold an Airbnb for 1.3 million in West Palm. This airbnb had everything, totally perfect. So desirable in fact that an agent fro Ryan Serhant's office personally flew down to check it out and make an offer. We got under contract within 14 days of listing and closed 2 weeks later. I marketed this property as a business - as it brought in 155K in gross revenues , could go to 180K with some extra work.

I see many people who got into the airbnb game 3 years ago trying to unload now, almost at cost. When I comped out the property there were 7 others trying to unload. I held open houses - people flooded in. I shot IG reels and Youtube Content - people DM'd me about the property. 

Prices are softening by 10%-20% - not because the demand isn't there - people want to buy. Most don't have the capability to buy with IR so high. 

It should be noted that many investors came through my property, loved how I was marketing it, but this wasn't the perfect investment for them.

What's happening is that there is ZERO competition - so buyers/ investors/ are subconsciously waiting on the sideline for someone to give them the all clear. 

I honestly see them raising IR by end of year - prices are still increasing, especially for insurance premiums. 

I also see demand surging at the first rate cut. We are in a reverse frog boil environment  - Instead of boiling to death slowly they raised IR so fast that people are unsure/unclear when it's a good time to come back in - they will more than likely lower rates 1/8 to 1/4 point at a time, incredibly slow to allow the market drip back to normal preventing a surge

I'm also seeing people drop $5,600,000 in cash to $13,000,000 in cash like it's nothing

Cash rules down in florida even on 889K deals 

 Couldn’t agree anymore! Well said

[Marc Winter]

I follow the current listings in several areas in SW FL.  Looks like about 50% of listings are taking price reductions.  

An ABNB I stayed in last winter was bought the previous year for $525k, that buyer then put it on the market for $525 less than a year after their purchase--today that asking price was reduced to $450!!!

My perception: with more inventory, price reductions, insurance rates and taxes on a moon-shot trajectory, it's looking like the storm is on the way.

[Matthew Smithmullally]

Quote from @Sergio P Ramos:

I've been hearing alot about the market in Florida. Mostly about the collapse in Florida's market. Am I just hearing rumors or is something going on? Is anyone investing in Florida right now?

 A lot of investors I speak to on a daily basis say they're waiting for some sort of correction or the election. Maybe they know something I don't.

[Scott Wolf]

Quote from @Marc Winter:

I follow the current listings in several areas in SW FL.  Looks like about 50% of listings are taking price reductions.  

An ABNB I stayed in last winter was bought the previous year for $525k, that buyer then put it on the market for $525 less than a year after their purchase--today that asking price was reduced to $450!!!

My perception: with more inventory, price reductions, insurance rates and taxes on a moon-shot trajectory, it's looking like the storm is on the way.

 To play devils advocate, listing prices don't matter. Closed and sold do.  I don't have the date on that (and won't be looking it up), but that seems more important.  If that data bears out a big collapse, I'll believe it.

[Jason Rash]

Quote from @Matthew Smithmullally:

Quote from @Sergio P Ramos:

I've been hearing alot about the market in Florida. Mostly about the collapse in Florida's market. Am I just hearing rumors or is something going on? Is anyone investing in Florida right now?

 A lot of investors I speak to on a daily basis say they're waiting for some sort of correction or the election. Maybe they know something I don't.

Most people I personally know who went into Airbnb jumped in after getting swept up in the Big returns + the 2.5% Interest rates. In my eyes this created a bloat. 

The other issue that most didn't see is that now the STR market is 10X more competitive - if you can't market a property to its fullest : Themed/ Clean/ Location/ Instagramable.. then most will get buried in the rise in taxes and insurance. This is the off loading most are seeing now. People are still traveling but being more selective where they make the memories

I wouldn't say a crash per say is coming with these properties. What I do see though is, many will off-load these properties within the next 12-36 months. However long they can hang on for or until it isn't economically feasible - whichever comes first. 

As far as a correction, that's happening now - unfortunately most of current price reductions are because agents either don't know the real starting price point, or what's more likely... the real estate agent is in a personal cash crunch and will just list at whatever the seller wants to list at...

Hope that helps