I started investing in real estate before Microsoft Excel even existed!

[Arn Cenedella]

This may blow some folks’ minds but one can make good investments without being a spreadsheet Ninja. Sacrilegious to some I know. 😀

I am a contrarian when it comes to investing.
I am a REAL ESTATE guy not a spreadsheet guy.
I evaluate location and the physical asset - the quality and the intrinsic value of a property.
I know the spreadsheet can be made to produce whatever returns someone wants.
The expression - garbage in garbage out applies.

Above all is local market knowledge.
Hands on boots on the ground practical day to day knowledge of the market.
The bricks and mortar matter.

I KNOW my market way better than CoStar does. 😀

Yet I see inveatos believe their proforma is the gospel. It’s NOT.

I ask investors and operators:

Can anyone tell me what the world economy will be like what the national economy will be like what the local economy will be like what interest rates will be what cap rates will be 5 years from now?

As folks want to debate projected rent in $10 increments on their proforma, they don’t realize how absurd at some level the whole exercise is.

Here’s my approach:
1. Know your market
2. If you find a quality property that makes sense today - ie it will pay for itself and provide some cash flow today with current debt.
AND
3. Your have rational logical reasons to believe the area and property will prosper over the next 5 to 10 years.
4. I BUY it!

That’s all anyone can really do.

I've never made a buy no buy decision based on cash flow per se or IRR. I know my market and am willing to pay a fair price for a good asset and I have faith for the rest.

I am humble enough to know I have no idea why the world will be like in 5 years.

The spreadsheet guys are in trouble right now. The old school real estate guys are doing fine.

😀