Forecast 10 Year Horizon

[Pete Schwan]

Recently attended a great seminar hosted by the #1 commercial real estate platform in the country. The focus was on Multi-Fam Outlook Nationally and in the Boston Market. Because I know the Boston Market, I was able to cross reference the data they presented with what I'm seeing in real life. They seemed to be spot on with what happened from 2009-2016 and with predicting the construction trends. 

My question to the BP Forum is whether or not the national trends are consistent with what folks are seeing in their respective markets. To summarize the presenter's main points:

• Since 2009 rental housing demand was outpacing supply until mid 2016, when supply finally caught up with demand
• Nationally, homeownership is low which has kept rental housing demand up
• As a nation, we are significantly under-housed
• As the Millenials begin to get married and start families there will be a significant increase in demand for "work-force housing" or "starter homes." The majority of the inventory is studios and 1-Bedrooms (in the cities).

Conclusion was essentially that Baby Boomers are down sizing and Millenials are going to need small Single Fams and this is going to create a huge demand for "Work Force Housing" for the next 10 years-ish timeline. This is in Small to Mid-sized markets, not the biggest cities in the nation. Anyone agree/disagree with this forecast? Thanks! ~Pete