Backing out of a great deal because of coronavirus covid-19

[James Denon]

This is unprecedented. Once in 4-5 generation event.

I had multifamily that I was supposed to close on next week in Springfield Massachusetts. It was a great BRRRR deal given the hot market conditions. All in with repairs at 165K. It would appraise at 230K. Decent cash flow starting September after rehab. Working class/section 8 neighborhood. I was excited about it.

Then coronavirus happened. This is just the beginning.. I think it will get worse and there will be a deep depression and 60% loss in stock market. This will be an event which will be similar to 1929 or 2008. The unemployment will be 20-30%. All services jobs are already lost. I could also lose my job as well. I also have other properties with working class people. I dont think any of them will be able to pay their rent. Massachusetts and Connecticut socialist administration told them they don't need to pay rent. MA went as far as saying they will put landlords to jail if they ask for rent. Not sure what relief I will get from banks for my mortgage. This article convinced me that we will start to see 1000 deaths per day by end of the month. This will cause panic to be heightened. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

So I freaked out on Friday and asked for a massive price reduction or I will walk away. I am even willing to let go of $7K of earnest money. I thought the damage this will cause to US economy will be significant and we wont be able to recover from this deep depression for 2 years. I also saw this article that suggests Springfield Massachusetts is the least recession resistant city in US: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/most-recession-resistant-cities-for-2020.html The nightmare would be massive crime and drug use with unemployment of people in service industries. Springfield becoming Detroit or South Holyoke etc. Since I have been investing in class C neighborhoods, I always thought my investments will be recession resistant. However, this pandemic is unprecedented. Most working class people lost their jobs within 2-3 weeks. 

I think banks will stop lending as the recession deepens and property prices will drop significantly. So I can buy similar properties in 12-18 months at 50% discount. So I should go into capital preservation mode and have dry powder for buying opportunities. Also when I am done with rehab in september I dont know if I would be able to find qualified tenants who can pay rent. 

Am I overreacting or are my fears warranted? Am I being to pessimistic and missing out on a great BRRRR deal?

I know biggerpockets do not have any investor who lived through pandemics. They would have to be 120+ years old. However people who lived through several recessions might be able to help. Any thoughts? Am I overreacting? Does anyone think world will become normal in couple of months? I have a long term horizon but I don't want to spend my hard earned cash if the real estate market is likely to fall 50% in the next few years.

[Greg Dickerson]

I went through 2009 heavy in real estate. This is completely different. No one knows how long this will last or how deep this go. What we do know is we will come roaring back once this is over. The housing market is still strong across the country, multifamily property demand is still strong and properties are still selling. Mostly due to low rates and abundant financing. As long as that continues things will remain strong in real estate. Retail and office were already struggling before this and will take the biggest hit which will also create opportunities

People are still working remotely as well as in construction, food and essential services and will be able to pay their bills. 

Some people will not be able to pay rent. The government and the banks know this and are prepared for this. You will be able to defer your mortgage payments to accommodate your tenants. Now is the time to put a plan in place to help your tenants and work out loans with your lenders.

Bottom line of you have a good deal with solid financials, good tenants and you can weather a few months of losing most of all of the income keep on moving forward. If the deal is thin and you can’t make it through this you may want to hold off. This decision will be different for everyone.