testing my analysis skills

[Tyson Bumgarner]

So I borrowed this format that someone else used to analyze his duplex, and I decided to give a try at analyzing a duplex I found. This is what I came up with.

Duplex 3/1 with 1/1 attachment. They wanted 80k but the only way to make this work with positive numbers would be to get it for 70k or less. The listing says it rents $995 and $450 respectively, I lowered it to $900 and $400 just based on the appearance and the fact that it doesn't say if it has W/D hook ups. I also did this with a 15yr loan because I am looking for buy and hold rentals and from what I have read, 15yr loans workout better for this if I can get a deal with positive cash flow.

Purchase price: $70,000
Down Payment: $14,000/20%
Mortgage payments: $6,188.76/yr (PI $515.76/month @ 5% 15 yr)
Rental Income: $15,600/yr
Vacancy 9%: $1,404
Property Tax: $2,424/yr
Insurance: $600/yr
Property Manager 12%: $1,872/yr
Maintenance: $1,800/yr ($150/door per month, 100 for the 3br and 50 for the 1br)
Utilities: $300/yr water (I guessed again)
Advertising: $200/yr (the guy that made this had this in here; I figured PM took care of this?)
Total Operating Expenses: $8,600
Net Operating Income: $7,000
Less Mortgage Payments: $6,188.76
Total Cash Flow: $811.24
Cash on Cash Return: $811/$14,000 = 17.2%

That gives me a 10% cap rate and also hits the 2% rule if I'm not mistaken. What other things am I not considering? What price would you pay to make this work? What did I mess up? Thanks !

[Michael Seeker]

I'm in the same boat as George. With the rates the way they are today, I would argue for 30 year loans all day. What happens when you own the property outright in 15 years, then decide you want to buy another one (or you want a boat or a new Corvette)?

At some point you're going to look at that house you own worth $150,000 or whatever amount really, and say man...I could really use all that cash for something. Then you basically have two options, option 1: sell. Option 2: finance. Now if you want to keep the property for cashflow...option 1 is out. Option 2 may be very unappealing if interest rates are at 8% or 10%. 4% loans will not be around forever, so you might as well get as many as you can for as long as you can while they're here.