Theoretical Exercise: What can go wrong?...

Theoretical Exercise: What can go wrong?...

Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 2 votes

Context:

As a new, bright-eyed, soon-to-be real estate investor in multi-family properties I want to be aggressive in building up a portfolio to where the rental income would allow me to step away from my full-time W2 job within the next few years. I also realize that I don't know what I don't know and that could hurt me. As a result, I want to lay out a scenario I hope to create (let's assume I can create the scenario below) and I am asking feedback on all of the things that could go wrong that I should anticipate/prepare for:

Scenario:

  • 5 fourplex properties = 20 units (average $900/month rent) - Looking for cash flow not necessarily appreciation for these properties
  • $1.5MM in investment property debt (Average purchase price $300K; Market Value $400K)
  • $500,000 equity across properties (Average $100K)
  • Loans: Conventional fixed rate or seller financing fixed rate
  • Rental Income: $18,000
  • Mortgage for all properties monthly: $10,000
  • Cash Reserves on hand: $200,000 (separate from the equity in the properties)

Reason for Scenario: My purpose in stepping away from a full-time job would be to start ramping up flips to pay down the mortgages over time. The expectation would be that I can at least do 4 flips a year (average $30K) to cover our living expenses and let the rental income build up the cash reserves month-over-month for vacancy, repairs, capital expenditures, etc.; however it would be a safety net from month to month, if needed.

Request: I want to know any and all of the possible financial or other real estate investing issues that I might come up against that I need to be prepared for that could put me in a precarious financial situation.

So please, unload any and all possible events that would make this scenario something that would put my financial situation at risk.

Thanks for your time!

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Member since 2018 · 259 posts · 159 votes
7y

. An arsonist burns down your units before you insure them

. Asteroid strikes Canada depressing it's Maple Reserve stocks causing a global panic in maple syrup prices

. Trumps 20% corporate tax break causes Global Recession/Depression in 2020

. Trump is elected to a 2nd term

. Jared Kushner is appointed Fed Chairman

I'm just spitballing and saying investors NEED to start planning for a recession and a downturn in the market.

The issue facing Real Estate right now is property prices are high and most people when they buy at the top of the market, count  on appreciation for capital repairs. Your scenario doesn't answer improvements/capital repairs.

Seller financing is usually short term 3-5 years with a balloon note. be prepared for 1 or 2 properties to eat up your cash reserves in a recession

Rental occupancy and rates may decline in a recession

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  • Investor · North Richland Hills, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    You're buying them for $100K/unit while the rents are only $900/mo - less than 1% of the purchase price. Based on this metric alone this portfolio won't cashflow with 75% debt.

    You're assuming 100% occupancy and it may happen from time to time but the property needs to perform at 90% occupancy or below.

    Even at 100% occupancy ($18K/mo) it won't cashflow because of expenses. $5000/unit/year is $8333/mo. Hence you're at a negative cashflow of $333 after paying $10K in mortgage.

    The only thing that can make this project work is rapid rent increase in the first year. If the market rent is $1200 but the in-place is $900 then you have enough upside to justify entry price.

  • Member since 2018 · 259 posts · 159 votes
    7y

    . An arsonist burns down your units before you insure them

    . Asteroid strikes Canada depressing it's Maple Reserve stocks causing a global panic in maple syrup prices

    . Trumps 20% corporate tax break causes Global Recession/Depression in 2020

    . Trump is elected to a 2nd term

    . Jared Kushner is appointed Fed Chairman

    I'm just spitballing and saying investors NEED to start planning for a recession and a downturn in the market.

    The issue facing Real Estate right now is property prices are high and most people when they buy at the top of the market, count  on appreciation for capital repairs. Your scenario doesn't answer improvements/capital repairs.

    Seller financing is usually short term 3-5 years with a balloon note. be prepared for 1 or 2 properties to eat up your cash reserves in a recession

    Rental occupancy and rates may decline in a recession

  • Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 2 votes
    7y

    @Kelly DeWinter - love the creativity as well as the practical possibilities. Thanks for the feedback!

  • Specialist · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2015 · 909 posts · 297 votes
    7y

    lol its great to plan very good job, now lets move on from speculation and vision and start learning the different markets on a national then state then local level once youve learned the hottest markets to invest in right now then you can start pulling the trigger on cashflow properties, or you can just invest passively with someone you trust

  • Investor · Stratford, CT · Member since 2015 · 258 posts · 230 votes
    7y

    @Broderick Graham - If you get a single commercial loan for this portfolio, your P&I expenditures will only be fixed for 5 or 10 years depending on the loan.  If interest rates increase, which is a very real possibility, your projected cash flow will most likely worsen.  If you can get five individual residential loans vs. a single commercial loan, you can get fixed financing for a longer term.

  • Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 2 votes
    7y

    @Ed Matson: Thanks Ed, I will certainly look to go the route of residential loans.

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