Projected income growth and rent inflation

[Vlad Denisov]

Hello everyone, 

1. According to this statistics the average rent inflation rate from 2010 to 2018 is 3.11% per year. During the recession the rate went to:

2.28% in 2009

0.23% in 2010

1.71% in 2011

2.65% in 2012

2.83% in 2013

And it finally came back to average rate in 2014 (3.15%)

So, we have 5 years with rents growth being below average rate, so we would have a loss in comparison with a long-run where we get 3.11%. Average rate for those 5 year was 1.87%. Does it mean that we are pretty safe on a multi-family investment from the point of view of income? It seems if the average rent grow by 40% less than average but it is still a positive number, our NOI is fine to protect us from a lot of issues. Is it the vacancy factor which matters the most that I'm missing?

[Sam Grooms]

@Vlad Denisov, You should not be looking at rent growth nationwide when underwriting a specific property. You need to look at market specific data, and probably submarket data, if available. 

That aside, yes, I would consider the investment to have a very low risk of not being able to meet its debt obligations. I'm assuming that's what you're referring to when you say very safe (Note that I won't use the word "safe" when referring to an investment, as that could be taken as a guarantee by my investors, which the SEC doesn't allow).