Capital Markets - is this late cycle?

[Pramod Yash]

Dear all:

The yield curve has inverted today. Typically it is viewed as a countdown to a recession.

Are you guys still as active as you were a few years ago?

I have been looking in Phoenix and people are paying over ask and more earnest money.

Curious to know what the experts and prolific investors here thought of where we are in the capital markets cycle. I realize each location is different with respect to the local supply demand parameters by capital markets condition apply to all.

Do you plan to change how you underwrite?

[Russell Brazil]

The yield curve inversion needs to last 3 months to be predictive, and its signal when that happens is that a recession could be up to what 2 or 3 years out or something like that? And the yield curve has been a predictor for the last 60 years...at some point that predictor will be wrong.