Appreciation vs. Cash Flow (and other questions/thoughts)

[Kusum Chanrai]

Hi MF friends, 

Happy Thursday! I'd love some wise advice on the following. I'll start with the basic ones. 

1) Apartment rent appreciation in a city: Does anyone know a good online source for this? For a city like San Antonio or Tampa, I'd love to understand what the annual rent increase has been, and if possible, future rent increase predictions. 

2) Construction Permits: New housing flooding the market seems to be 1 of the biggest risks in the MF world right now. What's the best source to see what is being built or completed in 2017. 

3) Investing for cash-flow vs. appreciation, given the stage of the market we're in:

I was given the advice, by v experienced and smart investors, to not focus too much on the cap rate, but rather, job growth. Identify top-performing areas and invest in them, even if the cap rate is say 5% vs. 10%. The hot markets right now have cap rates of 4-5%; and are mostly in a stage of "expansion" or even "hyper-supply". 

+ Basically, how can you tell which markets are good right now, but will continue to appreciate, and won't run into hyper-supply for a long time and which will (in which case, you should just wait for the cycle to turn). 

+ Over the time-span of 10-15 years, does one make more profit investing for appreciation vs. cash flow? Or does it vary wildly? 

Thanks all! 

[Lennon Lee]

Hello Kusum,

For both 1) and 2) I would recommend you get your hands on the following reports (They are free): 

- 2017 Multifamily Investment Forecast from Marcus & Millichap

- US Multifamily Outlook - Winter 2017 from Yardi Matrix

- 2016 Best Performing Cities from Milken Institute

- 2017 Viewpoint from Integra Realty Resources

The answer to the third question is very simple and straight forward: No matter what stage of the market we are, never bet on market appreciation. Invest for cash-flow. Period.

That being said, @Gino Barbaro actually pointed out a very valuable distinction between Market Appreciation and Forced Appreciation. The latter is something you definitely want to pursue if possible.

Best,

Lennon