Interpreting Market Data

[Neil Schoepp]

So I found a spot in the country I would love to visit. It also happens to be a place I could see myself relocating to in the next 5 to 7 years. It has great weather lots of attractions wonderful write ups and from everything I've seen so far some really, really great people I would love to call friends. I believe we will agree it also has population AND employment growth. The area I so fondly speak of is North Carolina. Specifically right now the Raleigh-Durham and surrounding areas. I am also looking at Wilmington as I LOVE the salt air along the coast. I grew up on a small canal leading out to Jamaica Bay in South Queens (NYC by JFK airport) and spent my summers swimming, fishing and crabbing. I've digress though so on to my question.

I seek your help in learning how to interpret the market data I come across. A good example is these two reports On Apartmentupdate.com and this one also.

So for example in the second chart it shows Vacancy and rents merging together. I would assume this is a good thing because as vacancies decrease then rents should increase that's what I see, but one could look at this chart and say rents are increasing way to fast. Another concern is Permits and Deliveries. As I would be looking at smaller B+ to B- properties 15-25 units in the area should I be concerned with the amount of units coming on. As more units come on then doesn't that push my older B+ property to a B.

As a side note how do I determine if the market is just to hot right now. I would think this is more of a feeling got from reading and talking to people so what do you think about the market? What should I be reading ? Who should I be talking to?

As always thanks for the help.