Analyzing Property / Analysis Paralysis

[Ruben Rubalcava]

Hello guys,

I am new to this group and a newbie to realestate. I bought a property from a friend in 2021 at a real good discount, which cash flows very well and was obviously easy to find. Now I am looking to scale up to a fourplex in the McAllen area, and am doubting myself if this deal I have under contract will be worth it in the long run. The purchase price of the property is 467K and I am putting 3.5% down with an FHA loan. I am quoted at a fixed 6.5% interest rate and will be doing a 2-1 interest buy down paid with sellers concessions. I will live in one unit for the first year, as required, but will be coming out of pocket about $300 dollars in the first year. Rents will start at $1,050, and I should profit between $1,000 - $500 dollars as I move out, raise rents, and my interest rate goes back up to the fixed 6.5% rate in 3 years. Also, I am afraid of overpaying for this property. If it does not appraise for that amount, then I know I will negotiate it down where it makes sense. (FYI, property is in a great location with good Airbnb income capabilites)

My question is... If it does appraise, then would it be a good deal? Am I just over analyzing, or are the numbers too close to be worth it?

Any advice would be great. I appreciate your time and thanks in advance!