Timing the market better

[Ron Hollingsworth]

I'm old enough to have seen one market correction (2006) and I see another one coming.  I predict that we still have a little more of an upswing before that happens however.   As of right now I am not ready to acquire my first property but I will be in an position to do so in the first quarter of 2023.  I am calculating that the market will start to slow down year end 2023-Spring 2024.  I believe we'll see the market decline about 25-30% over a 3 year period.  I was hoping to get your thoughts on this and on how to better time the market.

[Bill B.]

I believe prices will be up 30-40% by the end of 2023/spring of 2024. So you’re predicting prices might fall back to todays prices? Having only see one price correction in the last 40 years, that seems pretty specific/unrealistic. 

What is your plan if they go up 30-40% over the next couple years and then only drop 10% (second highest amount in US history) over the next 3 years? Will you pay 20% more 5 years from now than you could pay today? Or will you just never invest hoping for a 2nd crash?

Maybe you’ve been around long enough to know people have been predicting “the next crash” for at least 5 years straight now? Most “experts” were positive 2020 was finally the year. Anyone who believed them are either paying 30% higher prices today or are permanently  locked out of real estate liek I believe you will be if you wait another 2-5 years to get started. There are $100,000+ mistakes on $50-$100k investments. They’re locking in a 100-200% loss. That’s a deep hole to dig out of.