foreclosure opportunity advice - North Carolina property

[Colin Perry]

Hello All, 

I'm finally trying to get off "podcast mode" in my BP experience and get off the sidelines.  I've learned a lot from listening to others (and some past experience including buying my own house at foreclosure) but worried that I'm so anxious to do a deal that I'll overlook red flags.  

So here goes... I'm very interested in an upset bid on a foreclosure in a neighborhood which I'm very confident in.  I've run the numbers on my own and on BP's fix and flip calculator, and I'm more than happy with the return if repairs stay below $150,000.  That sounds like a huge, and thus conservative, number in my mind.  But is it??  How do you know what structural problems lie in an old house (built in the '30s) which you've never been in?  (I was lucky enough preview my own foreclosure/home before I bought it).  Let's say I don't have time to read 3 books on calculating rehab costs before I have to make the call on this one.  If you assume you've got to properly update a home for a nice neighborhood, how easy is it to spend $150k for a house less than 2000 square feet?  

That's probably enough info, but here are other thoughts running thru my mind.  If I get the house, open the doors and it's worse than I could ever imagine, I believe I can break even by selling the lot and walking away from the rehab.  I suppose that's an effective way to mitigate risk.  But is it?  Am I just looking for reasons to go for it?  Am I nuts to acquire a foreclosure without more experience in rehab costs, or do I have enough buffer to at worst learn and not lose my shirt?  

The last paragraph notwithstanding, does anybody have any rules of thumb for worst case numbers on foundation issues, mold, outdated plumbing, electrical, etc?  

My appreciation in advance to BP nation for your time!

[Colin Perry]

@Andy Mirza thank you for your thoughts and consideration.  Passing may be the right play, but I can't see how much I'd learn in that way honestly.  I agree $150k is a lot of money for a rehab.  Doesn't that help my argument for going for it though?  By having that expectation going in and being comfortable with the expected profit at that level, couldn't you say I've got my eyes open.  If I had a proforma with $60k and it really cost $100k that would sting, but if the opposite holds true and I budget for $150 and come out at $100 then I'm a happy guy that day.  

I did get an opinion today from one source that I respect and has experience in rehabs (yes only one so far).  I told him the size (1800 sf) and age of the house and he couldn't see electrical replacement costing more than $12k, plumbing $12k, HVAC $10k.  Obviously there's a littany of other potential repairs I haven't listed (structural, kitchen update, baths, paint, windows, flooring, roof) - but he didn't see $100k total even if things were bad off.  For sure I'm not taking one man's word, but that was good to hear.  

Regarding how I'd acquire this one, I've got a nice cash infusion ($140k after tax) from a pending sale on a rental and also a partner who is better funded than me. I'm expecting we'd use our own cash to purchase. For the rehab I can tap into an unused HELOC if need be, but my partner might carry a heavier load on that.

I recognize that I could very well have rose colored glasses and there is substantial risk on the horizon.  Please don't let anything in my response deter anyone from persisting in a different perspective.  

Regards to all,

CP