Positively knowing the ARV of an REO

[Phil M.]

Okay..I've come to a point where I believe I've definitley found some good deals, and I'm about to make offers on them.
But before I do, I need to be positive on the most important aspect of a supposed "deal": knowing the After Repair Value of a home. I feel this is the most important aspect because If I get a deal for a home for even $500.00, If the ARV Isn't significantly more than that price, than it isn't really a good deal at all! So, obviously, this is key. In fact, from what I can understand, the most important thing about fixing and flipping.

That being said, I need to know the ARV for me to make offers on REO homes. Why? Because I need to Calculate what I can offer on the home for it to be profitable. For example:

Asking Price of REO: $200,000 (Irrelevant)

After Repair Value: $220,000
Closing Cost: - $10,000
Holding Cost: - $4,000
Misc. Expenses: - $3,000
Repair Cost: - $23,000
Profit: - $24,000
Max offer price: $156,000

As you can see, the ARV, is the defining factor in what I can offer, not anything else. That being said, and seeing how important it is, what's the best way to positively know what you can see the home for after you repair it?
I've looked at similar sales prices, and sales price of the home in the last few years, and what the county has in their records for the home market value (for taxable purposes), but nothing is perfect, and I need a written in stone value for me to be confident that I'm going to fix up a house that will be worth a certain amount of money, and not all of a sudden the home being worth say, $24,000 less than I thought the after repair value would be.

- So whats the best way to know the ARV?

- How accurate/expensive are BPO?

- Will the appraisal after my offer is accepted give me both as is values and after repair values?

- Is the ARV the exact same thing as the market or retail value of the home, and how much will the quality of repairs/upgrades (no serious remodeling of the home, just keeping it simple) dictate the ARV?