HUD Counter-offers and price drops

[Bryan L.]

@Mark Ferguson - Mark, I hope you can answer a couple of questions relating to HUD homes.

Background first - I had made an offer on a HUD house and they were emailing me pretty much daily with their counter-offers. Also, I got emails when they did a price drop. It eventually got down to a list price of 51,200, and their counter-offers in their emails to me was around 35,800 net to HUD (right at 70%). I wanted it for less, so I put in a lower bid than their counter-offer which was not accepted. But they kept on emailing me with this same counter-offer that they wanted at 35,800. Well, all of a sudden it went under contract, without me receiving any indication of a price drop or a lower counter-offer. I eventually found out that it went under contract for 32,400 (obviously less than the counter-offer that they had sent to me repeatedly). So, here's my questions (below):

1. My guess is that this one was on the verge of getting another price drop (probably a typical 10% drop), which would have put the new list price at 46,000. And their accepted offer of 32,400 (net-to-HUD) is right at 70%. But I never got an email telling me of the price drop. Is it possible that the other buyer just so happened to have put in their offer the day before the price drop and HUD accepted it without ever advertising the price drop? In other words, if HUD is countering at 70% and I make an offer on Wednesday that is less than their counter-offer, but they are already planning a price drop on Thursday, is it possible that I might then get the deal without them ever even posting the price drop? (Hope you can follow my reasoning here).

2.  The eventual buyer was working with the listing agent.  Question:  Does the listing agent know about any upcoming price drops before they are posted on Hudhomestore?  For example, in my area price drops are usually posted (and emailed) at about 12:30 a.m.  So, if I put in an offer at 12:31 a.m., my offer isn't opened until the following day (along with those of all the other investors who hit it on the day of the price drop).  But on the other hand, if I had put my offer in at 11:00 p.m. the day before, then maybe I would get the deal without the price drop ever even being published?  Does this make sense?