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Updated about 5 years ago,
To what extent should natural disasters factor into decisions?
I'm a commercial real estate investor in California and am interested in hearing about how and if other investors factor earthquakes into their investment decisions. For example, if there's a 50% chance of a magnitude 8 earthquake within the next 30 years, would that factor into your underwriting/valuation at all? Would you consider it at all when deciding whether to sell vs. refinance-and-hold a property? (Assuming you're experienced enough and comfortable investing outside of California)
Earthquake insurance is very cost-prohibitive and deductibles are usually 25%, so let's disregard property insurance. It doesn't seem like any brokers or investors in California are considering earthquakes. On one hand, you don't want to let something that may never happen get in the way of your financial growth, but one natural disaster can ruin your portfolio especially if you only own a few properties. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.