How do you interpret renewal probability, downtime, and vacancy?

[Max Powers]

The definition of all those terms are obvious, but if you're trying to back into a pro forma you're looking at or create your own how do all those elements work together?

For example, if there is a 75% chance of renewal, expected downtime of 3 months for a new lease, and an assumed 5% vacancy how would you put all those elements together?

Would you do .75 * market renewal rate + .25 * renewal rate*(/12)? Plus would you add a general vacancy or would that be double counting the general vacancy?