Tariffs and commercial buildjng

[Henry Clark]

I old look at buying your lumber early.  Most of it comes out of Canada.  Prices tripled last

Time Trump out tariff in Canada.  Plus availability .

China-  would buy ahead your electric breaker boxes and out let connections. People had to move to used  or as we did had to open more services to match different box configurations.  Other things. Door knobs , fixtures. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

The real question is duration of these tariffs. 

It'll be confusing in the short term, I think people assume it's inflationary. It is, on paper. 

If this happens for sub 3 months or longer than 9 months, it'll be inflationary. On the former front, the consumer will eat it. The latter part, the supplier will eat it. Anywhere in between, I think it's deflationary because consumer won't continue to eat it & supply side is still long enough to not warrant new supply at tariff related prices.

We really need to see how long this lasts. 

i found in my build projects that started just before and continued through the pandemic prices rose. everything but lumber became sticky IE they rose but did not fall.. Lumber and plywood went up to the sky and then came back down but not down to previous levels everything else rose and stuck. If we were not able to raise the price of our homes by 20% or more we would had to stop.. my LORI plan started at 600k sold two of them and made our normal 100k net.. last loris I sold 36 months later went for 850 to 900k and we made right at 250k NET on those ones.. so it was very specific to plans that CASH buying empty nesters wanted .. Our two story more family homes started at 500k and have ended up at 675k to 725k.. with our original nets at 100k ( was the goal) to now we are 100k to 150k NET NET NET on those.. we have 17 more to deliver and 11 are presold at those high numbers and so if I can keep lumber where i need it we should have a very nice last year of the project. This was 90 homes were i bought the dirt did the horizontal and built all the homes.. My wife sells them and does the interior designs etc. Been a lot of work and Lot of exposure financially I borrowed about 50 million to pull this off.. Thankfully we are commercial bank clients so our rates are as low as you can get in the market place for anyone who is not Lennar or DR horton or those types.