Investors are withdrawing money from REITs in record quantities

Investors are withdrawing money from REITs in record quantities

Manny VasquezBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Orange County · Member since 2022 · 317 posts · 293 votes

I just read an article on the Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/i... stating the fact that investors have responded to rising interest rates by pulling money out of real estate funds in record quantities. As a matter of fact, nontraded REIT's, such as Starwood Capital Group and Blackstone , have paid out $3.7 billion in withdrawals in Q3 2022 - which is an alarming increase of 12 times from that same period in 2021 (Y-O-Y). Both of those companies have limited the amount of investor withdrawals . These withdrawal limits are triggered in order to prevent the fund from having to make forced sales.

However, even with pre-set withdrawal limits from these REIT companies, investors can continue to withdraw their money in the future, which has several negative effects on REITs:

1) It prevents REITS from buying properties or continue existing projects (in order to hold-on to cash reserves and pay back investors)  

2) If investors continue to withdraw money, this may lead to a downward spiral of selling assets if it can't gain the trust of its investors (i.e. the forced sales of its properties).   

2a) As a matter of fact, Blackstone has put up for sale its 49.9% interest in MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino


Given the above news and with Zillow, Redfin and Opendoor closing down there iBuying departments, Is this another bellweather for dire commercial and residential economic conditions to come? 


Postcript:
Personally, I couldn't be more elated with the above news as this opens-the-door (no pun intended) for the little guy to buy (both residential and commercial).


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Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y

Good post. More data on the dire straits of some commercial residential real estate investors.

Is this a time for worry?  I would worry if I overpaid hoping the market would bail me out.  I know a bunch of properties that are nearing foreclosure.  There may soon be blood in the streets. Frankly, I'm excited about the opportunities.  

Meanwhile, our existing properties are well-capitalized and performing well in solid, steady markets.  It was frustrating to get outbid on so many deals the past few years, but we are grateful we stuck to our strict underwriting because we really have no concerns about the next 24 months.

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  • Greg ScottPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y

    Good post. More data on the dire straits of some commercial residential real estate investors.

    Is this a time for worry?  I would worry if I overpaid hoping the market would bail me out.  I know a bunch of properties that are nearing foreclosure.  There may soon be blood in the streets. Frankly, I'm excited about the opportunities.  

    Meanwhile, our existing properties are well-capitalized and performing well in solid, steady markets.  It was frustrating to get outbid on so many deals the past few years, but we are grateful we stuck to our strict underwriting because we really have no concerns about the next 24 months.

  • Manny VasquezBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Orange County · Member since 2022 · 317 posts · 293 votes
    3y

    @Greg Scott Thanks buddy!  Yes, I have been waiting for these "economic times" to manifest as I was getting outbid  on properties all the time.  Now that they are here (or very fast approaching), I am salivating at the opportunities that these economic times will provide.  I am currently "In Escrow" on a foreclosed multi-unit ( a triplex with a commercial storefront) property in Los Angeles.  I am very certain that I would have been outbid by these bigger corporations.

    I also agree with you that most people will be okay.  However, there will be several people and properties that are over-leveraged and will face the unfortunate ordeal of foreclosure and/or short-sales.

  • Member since 2022 · 10 posts · 4 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Manny Vasquez:

    @Greg Scott Thanks buddy!  Yes, I have been waiting for these "economic times" to manifest as I was getting outbid  on properties all the time.  Now that they are here (or very fast approaching), I am salivating at the opportunities that these economic times will provide.  I am currently "In Escrow" on a foreclosed multi-unit ( a triplex with a commercial storefront) property in Los Angeles.  I am very certain that I would have been outbid by these bigger corporations.

    I also agree with you that most people will be okay.  However, there will be several people and properties that are over-leveraged and will face the unfortunate ordeal of foreclosure and/or short-sales.

    Good posts..I did some digging into opendoor in Las Vegas and I saw about 500 properties and most were listed below what the paid. I guessed that they are paying out about 1/4 million a month in taxes, HOA fees etc. The only properties that were listed above purchase, never mind rehab costs, were the ones purchased in September, October, November. Couple that with a class action lawsuit from stock investors and I think Opendoor will close its door pretty soon.

  • Greg ScottPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Manny Vasquez:

      I am currently "In Escrow" on a foreclosed multi-unit ( a triplex with a commercial storefront) property in Los Angeles.  I am very certain that I would have been outbid by these bigger corporations.


     Congrats!

    Ironically, I have an LOI accepted on a property from a REIT. It was not headed to foreclosure but wasn't suited to their current situation.

  • Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 218 posts · 111 votes
    3y

    @Manny Vasquez Hi, hit me up in PM, I want to ask you a non-related question. Hope all is well!

  • Manny VasquezBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Orange County · Member since 2022 · 317 posts · 293 votes
    3y

    @Michael Kotyk - Wow!  500 properties below what they paid??!!  And that's just Las Vegas.  I wonder how many properties they have that are "underwater" in their books.  I'm pretty sure that if you ask OpenDoor, they'll have some spokesperson say that all is fine but then again, they really can't come out and say that they are bleeding red (they have to say that they are ok) or else this will cause panic amongst their investors which will lead to a drain on their funds. By the way, I hadn't heard about their Class action lawsuit?  That is news to me.  Do you have any more details on the lawsuit?  

  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    3y

    @Manny Vasquez

    no one has been able to tell me what the impact on the SFH market of the iBuyers and institutional buyers was. did they account for... 10% of the run-up in the last few years? 42%?

    in some states they own few or no SFH properties. so i just think all of this is going to continue to be market specific. will this really be a big opportunity for the little guy? ...maybe? I really don't know.

    and commercial is a totally different ballgame that i know nothing about.

  • Member since 2022 · 10 posts · 4 votes
    3y

    This is a direct quote from PRnewswire: ‘The complaint filed alleges that, throughout the Class Period, Defendants failed to disclose to investors that: (1) the algorithm used by the Company to make offers for homes could not accurately adjust to changing house prices across different market conditions and economic cycles; (2) as a result, the Company was at an increased risk of sustaining significant and repeated losses due to residential real estate pricing fluctuations; (3) accordingly, Defendants overstated the purported benefits and competitive advantages of the algorithm; and (5) as a result, Defendants' positive statements about the Company's business, operations, and prospects were materially misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis at all relevant times.’

  • Member since 2020 · 69 posts · 21 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Manny Vasquez:

    I just read an article on the Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/i... stating the fact that investors have responded to rising interest rates by pulling money out of real estate funds in record quantities. As a matter of fact, nontraded REIT's, such as Starwood Capital Group and Blackstone , have paid out $3.7 billion in withdrawals in Q3 2022 - which is an alarming increase of 12 times from that same period in 2021 (Y-O-Y). Both of those companies have limited the amount of investor withdrawals . These withdrawal limits are triggered in order to prevent the fund from having to make forced sales.

    However, even with pre-set withdrawal limits from these REIT companies, investors can continue to withdraw their money in the future, which has several negative effects on REITs:

    1) It prevents REITS from buying properties or continue existing projects (in order to hold-on to cash reserves and pay back investors)  

    2) If investors continue to withdraw money, this may lead to a downward spiral of selling assets if it can't gain the trust of its investors (i.e. the forced sales of its properties).   

    2a) As a matter of fact, Blackstone has put up for sale its 49.9% interest in MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino


    Given the above news and with Zillow, Redfin and Opendoor closing down there iBuying departments, Is this another bellweather for dire commercial and residential economic conditions to come? 


    Postcript:
    Personally, I couldn't be more elated with the above news as this opens-the-door (no pun intended) for the little guy to buy (both residential and commercial).



  • Member since 2020 · 69 posts · 21 votes
    3y

    Yeah but the big hedge funds are still in the residential market.  And the lack of inventory makes this market tight.  So numbers haven’t adjusted tremendously. SF area is only down 3-5%.  

    Yes, foreclosures are going up. But not a lot of good quality.  I think a year from now will show more opportunities. 

  • Real Estate Consultant · Rancho Mission Viejo, CA · Member since 2018 · 41 posts · 36 votes
    3y

    With the increase in interest rates, liquidity is more important than ever. Cash and other liquid assets are moving out of the banks and brokerage accounts and into treasuries. Investors instead take low-paying deposits and place them into short-term treasuries. This takes the deposits, which the banks lend, out of the banks, increasing the bank's cost of funds. The higher cost of funds for banks leads to higher interest rates for those properties you buy. The interest rates will ultimately change the return as your borrowing cost change. 

    Properties recently bought with rents at or above market and high increases in rent forecasted will bear the most brunt from the changing market. Buy right and operate the business plan. It's a good time to sit back in the batter's box and wait for your pitch. Make sure you have the cash to take advantage. 

    Cody's Current Buyers Box:

    - Under market rents (>15%)

    - Basis below replacement cost, Low basis

    - Cap Rate > Borrowing Rate

    - Major MSA markets with + Jobs 

    - 3-5 year WALT (weighted avg lease term)

    (Still swinging)

  • Rental Property Investor · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2013 · 11 posts · 2 votes
    3y

    Here in St Louis one very large fund that's purchased many homes from me hasn't purchased in 6 months now. Another active real estate company just paused acquisitions and laid off part of their national workforce. I've seen some of the big funds sell homes for less than they paid lately. I don't see a 2008 crash coming but things are definitely pulling back. 


    I know I'm not purchasing any rentals for at least 6 months until I have a better idea of where things are headed. 

  • Manny VasquezBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Orange County · Member since 2022 · 317 posts · 293 votes
    3y

    @Cody J Leivas - I totally agree with you, Blackstone, Starwood and other REIT's may have been aggressive in their recent property acquisitions with properties purchased with rents at or above market, leaving them little room for growth. The FED has been deliberate with interest rate hikes, and I'm very certain that in this month's FED meeting (happening today or tomorrow) they will continue to raise interest rates (mainly because inflation is still too high). I don't think it will be a +75 bps increase, rather, I think it will be a +50 bps increase. Rest assured that they will continue to raise interest rates. This translates to additional pressure on the REIT's (and their liquidity crunch) that will continue to rise in the coming months.

  • Real Estate Agent · Plano, TX · Member since 2015 · 734 posts · 511 votes
    3y

    One of the biggest drivers of fear or one of the main reasons we'll see some distressed assets coming to the markets in the next year (especially in the MF asset class) is the maturation of bridge loans taken in 2019, 2020 and 2021. These loans were taken at a 4-6% rate and underwritten to be sold at a sub 5% cap rate environment. Neither of these two will be available for investors in 2023 which means if you planned on converting to a permanent loan at sub 4% rates you will be met with a solid 6% or higher rate and if you need to extend/refi your bridge into another period, you will be met with 10-13% rates environment.  

    Many of these assets won't have enough margin to support the debt service and will be forced to sell at a discount. 

    Will it crash the industry? Nope. Will it be "party time" like it was in 2009-2012? unfortunately, that's a nope as well. This will only affect those assets that have loans up for refi in 2023 and have no equity built in them (short term / bridge loans in most cases). 

    Will there be some interesting opportunities? Yes! just need to make sure you are ready and that your underwriting is conservative enough to support the market not recovering in the next 2-3 years (no idea if it will, but no real good indicators of a quick recovery).

    Just my .02

  • Manny VasquezBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Orange County · Member since 2022 · 317 posts · 293 votes
    3y

    @Joseph Gozlan Great point!  I hadn't even considered the maturation of the bridge loans taken at much lower rates a few years ago.  The inability to refinance into the same rate (or lower) and thus generate the profits they had anticipated will lead to the forced-sales of these properties, and in some cases, will come with substantial losses. I agree with you that this won't be a "crash" and I also believe that there will be a consistent, slow-trickle of non-performing properties that will be hitting the market.

  • Rental Property Investor · Henrico, VA · Member since 2019 · 265 posts · 155 votes
    3y
    I'd be interested to hear how much these withdrawals from Blackstone represent, in a way that can be comparable to the overall stock market selloff. Blackstone takes funds likely from many of the same institutions and entities that invest in stock funds, and there has been a considerable selloff in the stock market of 20%+/-. Is this worse or comparable?  (I haven't read the article quite yet but would like to). These private companies may be caught in the same dynamic that the stock market is.

    Also, keep in mind 40% of Blackstone's business is in global warehouses. They also have a considerable portion in medical labs and high quality spaces like that.  They do have some portion in multi residential.  Just something to keep in mind as not sure about direct opportunities for small investors looking for small multis.  
    i do think the effect on commercial loans will take time to play out and affect these folks as current multi year leases come up for renewal and several year fixed loan rates come to and end looking for refis. 
  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    3y

    @Alex Forest

    agree.

    the link between this and a big change for small investors in the SFH space is... none. there isn't any.

  • Lender · Tampa, FL · Member since 2020 · 113 posts · 119 votes
    3y

    @Manny Vasquez

    The REIT saga is an interesting story that's unfolding. What I think is most revealing about the storyline is the power of the masses. While groups like Blackstone are the 700 lb gorillas (even iBuyers to the average SF investor) it's important to remember these groups are ultimately subject to the will of their investors.

    Institutional buyers traditionally 'overpay' for properties because they don't buy properties one-off. They accumulate large portfolios of properties in order to ride the broader macroeconomic wave. While frustrating for the typical investor, the Blackstone's of the world still have to provide an alpha (outperform the market or other available investment vehicles) to their investors or they will park their capital in another sector or asset.

    Removing capital from a business is almost the equivalent of removing gasoline from a car, without gas the business can't run. Blackstone isn't about to run out of capital, but this storyline does make a few things clear:

    1) Capital is actively coming out or real estate and into less volatile assets (bonds/treasuries)

    2) Independent of company size - if you don't deliver returns, investors will take their capital elsewhere

    3) Additional indication of reduced buyer competition and softening prices in commercial real estate

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