Does a Bad Tenant that does not allow viewing change the #'s

[Tim Murphy]

Hoping Bigger Pockets can advise me.  I'm new to wholesaling in the Sacramento area.  For four months I've put out mailers, and I text and cold call several times a week.  Though I've talked to many people, today I received my first seemingly real lead.

The catch is the property has a tenant that will not allow the property to be viewed. The tenant has not paid rent in over 6-months and will need eviction. How drastically do these conditions change the equation of Good deal = 30% below ARV minus repair costs. Rough details of the property are:

The owner is a distressed seller who lives out of state. He rented the property to one of his kids for over 10-years, but now his kid is no longer in the house. But the kid's ex-friend (not spouse) has been in the house for six months, has not paid rent and will not leave. The owner's asking price is on the bubble of what seems to be a good wholesaler deal; that is his asking price would meet the requirement of being 30% lower than ARV of some comps I saw on Zillow, allows for $54K in repairs and a nice margin for my wholesaling fee. This feels too good to be true, and maybe it is: he does not believe the tenant would allow anyone in the home, and there is the matter of tenant eviction in this time of COVID.

How do I factor these conditions into my numbers?  Any advice is GREATLY appreciated.