Good cash flow, but after repairs, upside down.

Good cash flow, but after repairs, upside down.

Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 44 votes

Currently under contract for a 3 bed upper/lower duplex. It was a FSBO listed around market rate, but I know if it went on MLS it would've gone for more. 3 bed duplexes are hard to find in my area to purchase and to rent, so demand is there.

During inspection the crack we were a little worried about in the foundation turned out to be a much bigger problem than anticipated. Entire basement leaks. Estimate to rebuild bowed wall, install interior drain tiles and sump pump, is $20k. It will also need a new driveway which is currently sloping towards the house, which is the reason for the bowed wall. 1950s home with original windows, but they work. Air conditioning units 30 years old, will need to be replaced soon. Roof will need to be replaced in the next couple years. Bathrooms are in rough condition, was planning on giving them a facelift.

All in, I’m estimating $30k right away, and probably another $20k in the coming years.

Here are the numbers.

- purchase price $151k

- rent: $2200 total

- property taxes $4500

- insurance $800

- initial repairs $30k

- additional repairs $20k

- will be hiring property management company for 10% of rents

- setting aside 10% for repairs

- setting aside 20% for capex (future roof)

- cash flow $530/month

- cash on cash return with initial $30k in renovations is 9%

To me, the numbers work from a cash flow perspective. Where I’m getting caught up is that the property will not be worth the $200k I will have put into it total. I’m planning on buying and holding, not selling, but I still don’t know if it’s a bad move.

This would be our first rental property. But I don’t know if I should back out because of the unexpected $20k that came up from the inspection....

Thoughts? Is it a bad deal to put in more to the property than it’ll be worth, even though the cash flow is good?

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
5y
sounds like a money pit.. if its not worth 200k once you dump 50k into it  why do it.. ?

just B/C of the greater fool theory is no reason to reach for a deal.. cash flow is only one component of IRR
if value is less than what you have into it.. you have zero exit strategy when you tire of being a landlord.
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  • Flipper/Rehabber · Phoenix Arizona · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes
    5y

    If owner counters half way then he may counter again.  If he counters less than half then he is done with his counters.

    If your creative your agent will find out what the owner needs, he may take his payments over time as long as he knows that money is going into the property.   So  many deals are made and lost because the agent did not find out about the sellers position and your agent.

    I like the sound of the property but I am a contractor!!  I can fix anything!

    I like that in 5 years you will  make more in equity than most people in 30 years of hard work and savings.

    But, the first couple years may be like a bad relationship and you can't kick this out!

    I worry that you may not be able to get it up and running like you should.

    Wish you had 50K that you could just fix it all and that is my concerns!

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
    sounds like a money pit.. if its not worth 200k once you dump 50k into it  why do it.. ?

    just B/C of the greater fool theory is no reason to reach for a deal.. cash flow is only one component of IRR
    if value is less than what you have into it.. you have zero exit strategy when you tire of being a landlord.

    The greater fool theory.  Another pearl from Jay👍

    Selling a small nothing rental house in rural nowhere and am amazed at offers of over $250/sqft.  Considering an offer, when a greater fool comes along and offers even more.  WTH is going on in this market?  

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Steve Vaughan:
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
    sounds like a money pit.. if its not worth 200k once you dump 50k into it  why do it.. ?

    just B/C of the greater fool theory is no reason to reach for a deal.. cash flow is only one component of IRR
    if value is less than what you have into it.. you have zero exit strategy when you tire of being a landlord.

    The greater fool theory.  Another pearl from Jay👍

    Selling a small nothing rental house in rural nowhere and am amazed at offers of over $250/sqft.  Considering an offer, when a greater fool comes along and offers even more.  WTH is going on in this market?  

    its a robust sellers market in many areas of the country..  If I look at our project here in Canby Oregon.. our first 30 homes.. I had proforma at 525k average sale price  thats a 2100 sq ft home on Average Once I got them to market we are at 610k on average.. although our build cost ( B/C of Lumber) have risen 15 k or a little more per house.. we were perking along starting in Aug at about 2 homes to 3 home sales a month. Then from about Dec 10th to Jan 19th we had no sales and I was starting to worry that the market was finally going to settle way down.  

    Then on Tuesday the 19th of Jan.. I had 4 appointments ( my wife the broker was still in Vegas with the Grandkids) So I dusted off my old Sales presentations.. And well I went 4 for 4 sold each client and then I followed that up on Sat with 2 more sales.. so that was 6 sales in less than a week.. Now granted it equals one 3.6 million dollar Seattle home.. but for us pretty good .. and we sold a few more and are down to having only 4 out of 30 left in basically 6 months.. With very little marketing actually Zero in expenses JUST our home made website and signage and MLS.. Almost half of the sales we are representing ourselves and the buyer which is huge.. Anyone flipping houses that does not have a license leaves big dollars on the table.

    The 6k Mai master appraisal had indicated 2 houses a month or a 18 month sell out .. And as stated for prices well below what we are actually achieving..  So its good right now.. Hope I can be typing these type of reports for the next 60 houses .. :)  

    In our area its very low rates and lack of inventory  however our buyers are about 50% empty nesters and if not paying cash are putting huge downstrokes so not totally interest rate driven.. It is quality of lifestyle though we are on the fringe of the metro area so away from all the riff raff and we do have a unique location in this particular town.. although all the builders are doing just as well no matter location. but we are getting higher prices based on our location and build quality. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 44 votes
    5y

    @Jim K.

    It’s a 1957 building just south of Milwaukee, wi.

    Bathrooms definitely aren’t a full gut or as bad as your picture.

    Occupied but at below market rate right now.

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y

    @Sarah McCluskey

    Thanks, Sarah. First of all $115K breaks down to $57,500 per 3-bedroom unit. We're obviously talking C-class in the Rust Belt and you're going to find plenty of deferred maintenance -- I've talked about how these duplexes come on the market before here on Bigger Pockets. I would be leery about taking this on as a hands-off investor for her first but and not someone like me who would be specializing in this kind of thing (please read my profile).

    1957 -- So let's talk plumbing: one of the things you should look for is galvanized steel water supply piping. If the water supply pipes leading to the kitchen and bathroom are copper, you're good. If not, you have a really expensive renovation coming up. You will have cast-iron drainage piping in there. For electricity: maybe rag wire or armored cable, questionable grounding. At least you're not dealing with knob-and-tube, but there still may be issues getting the place insured.

    Now about size -- this is a big building -- I've never seen a purpose-built 3-bedroom over-under here in da Burgh. There were a number of large 2/1 properties built here, with large living rooms, dining rooms, and sunrooms -- there have been conversions. Either way, with a building of this size (4-5000 ft2 total) built in that era, you should have a poured reinforced concrete basement, not block. A bowing wall? That's serious trouble, as I see things.

    I guarantee you that the place will need to be reroofed, and the roof is huge. No way around that in a 1957-vintage place like that being sold today. They put a second layer of shingles on it in the 80s, and now you'll have to strip both layers off before you put on your roof. That's probably $20K more there.

    Good news about the bathrooms. At least you don't have cast-iron tubs with no showers.

    I would pass on this, or get yourself ready for some major work and specialization on your part. This is not the kind of first deal I would recommend for a new investor in the Rust Belt. This is going to be a money pit -- that's why the owner is selling.

    Thanks for answering my questions, I hope I've been helpful, and I wish you the absolute best of luck going forward. If you decide to go through with this, please stay in touch. Places like that are my sort of thing.

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 44 votes
    5y

    @Jim K. Thanks so much! I appreciate you sharing your knowledge and experience!

    Side note - I never knew I lived in the “rust belt”. Had to google it :-p

  • Real Estate Broker · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2016 · 121 posts · 81 votes
    5y

    @Sarah McCluskey, I'm a local Realtor and Investor in Milwaukee. First and foremost: I wish you nothing but success. Regarding this deal in particular, it sounds like the exit strategies are limited, which is a huge red flag. Like @Jay Hinrichs said, "if its not worth 200k once you dump 50k into it why do it.. ?" 

    While it may be a little extra cash out of pocket, finding an experienced agent to help with your first few deals (including FSBO deals) may save you a lot of money on the back-end. Leverage someone else's experience and local market knowledge to better protect yourself from rookie mistakes.


    - What is your ARV?
    - Could you refi sometime in Summer/Fall once you've made some capital improvements and increase the rents?
    - What are some other ways to ensure prompt return from your start-up capital?

  • Member since 2020 · 117 posts · 84 votes
    5y

    tell seller to fix the issue or lower the price. he doesnt agree let the deal slide and let someone else hold that bag. no need to get a bad deal just to get a deal. its going to take you more then 8 years just to get that 50k back that you put into it the way i see that is you have 0 cash flow for 10 years and you better hope nothing goes wrong during those 8 years( very unlikely)

  • Member since 2019 · 26 posts · 16 votes
    5y

    @Jay Hinrichs. OMG, That phrase absolutely speaks volumes! Love it!

    I will be adding “the Greater Fool Theory” to my project analysis.

    I can’t remember the number of times the thought crossed my mind that of I did not take what looked like a good deal— but then my numbers didn’t quite work— and I tried to force the numbers just because I knew someone else would buy it up in a split second if I turned it down.

    Thank you for the enrichment this morning!

  • Steve RozenbergPro Member
    Specialist · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    Always make sure that you have an end goal and that goal is defined by your strategy. The deal may or may not make sense depending on your strategy.

    Remember you make money 5 ways

    1. Cashflow

    2. Equity Capture

    3. Debt Paydown

    4. Depreciation 

    5. Appreciation

    You likely will not get all of these in a deal.. #3 and #4 yes always... The others you pick which is most important and make one a non-negotiable that you must have when looking for a deal. This is all base on your end goal and strategy

  • Burnaby, BC · Member since 2017 · 282 posts · 268 votes
    5y

    It just always depends what your other opportunities are that you would be looking at. With your numbers even doing a renovation, 10% CoC is not bad at all and you will still be getting mortgage paydown + potential appreciation (which it sounds like could be promising if there's not a lot of inventory like this in your area).

  • Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Sarah McCluskey

    Hard pass for me.

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 44 votes
    5y

    @Steve Rozenberg thanks! I really like how you broke this down.

  • MD · Member since 2018 · 71 posts · 23 votes
    5y

    @Sarah McCluskey

    To that point. Yes, if you buy and hold long enough of course it works out....but how long? Based on your repairs and cashflow what is your breakeven point? I bought mine for 85k and spent about 7.6k in repairs. It's going to take me over a year to break even. I'm okay with that. Yours will be exceedingly longer.

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 44 votes
    5y

    Thanks so much everyone for your comments! I always appreciate this community and all of the viewpoints so much.

    We countered back $40k lower and the seller declined. Which I’m okay with. On to find a better deal with less of a headache!

  • Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    5y

    @Sarah McCluskey

    The seller's living on Fantasy Island and he can stay there until he finds someone to keep him company, and in this market, he probably will. Good luck casting your net for the next one, and I'm very glad you checked in.

  • Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Jim K.:

    @Sarah McCluskey

    The seller's living on Fantasy Island and he can stay there until he finds someone to keep him company, and in this market, he probably will. Good luck casting your net for the next one, and I'm very glad you checked in.

     It's a bad deal, but we have no inventory - someone will pay for it. "The greater fool.."

  • Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2021 · 90 posts · 32 votes
    5y

    @Alexander Szikla hi there I'm new to real estate why wouldn't this property refi well?

  • Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2021 · 90 posts · 32 votes
    5y

    @Timothy VanWingerden hi there I'm new to real estate and learning daily. My question is would you purchase then refi to have repairs completed or would you just include it in the first financing transaction?

  • Rebecca KnoxBusiness Member
    Specialist · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    Who quoted the basement job? In my experience, Dave Graf at GSI or Bud Radtke are most competitive. Giovanni Kais is very reasonable for concrete jobs and gets great reviews from investors too. What area of town is this duplex located?

    Captain Save-A-Home LLC
  • Real Estate Agent · New York City · Member since 2020 · 819 posts · 641 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Nicki Shelton:

    @Alexander Szikla hi there I'm new to real estate why wouldn't this property refi well?

    An appraiser will look at comparable properties not solely the cost of buying plus the improvements made

  • Property Manager · Henderson, NV · Member since 2018 · 501 posts · 317 votes
    5y

    I would request a credit towards the purchase price (or reduction of the purchase price) equal to the repair costs which were not known before placing your offer.  

  • Burnaby, BC · Member since 2017 · 282 posts · 268 votes
    5y
    Please DM me, would love to know more james. That sounds like an amazing area and would like to look into investing there 
    Originally posted by @James G.:

    @Sarah McCluskey

    To that point. Yes, if you buy and hold long enough of course it works out....but how long? Based on your repairs and cashflow what is your breakeven point? I bought mine for 85k and spent about 7.6k in repairs. It's going to take me over a year to break even. I'm okay with that. Yours will be exceedingly longer.

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