Time to sell in Danville and move to SF?

[Ethen NA]

Hi,

I have a townhouse in Danville ( East Bay ) - as my primary residence- and I am planning to sell it . The San Ramon/Danville market is currently really hot. There are too many buyer coming from SF and other area because of COVID, inventory is very low and houses are getting almost 10 to 20 offers in almost a day with offers at least 100k above the asking price. Basically it is a seller market and the appreciation is like 2018 or even better. 

I really like San Ramon/Danville . The community is great , very new houses , schools are 10 out of 10 , but I really don't know if it make sense to sell my townhouse and change to single family . Although I can sell at good price but then I have to buy a lot more to buy a single family

I heard the situation is the opposite in SF . I would greatly appreciate your opinion about  SF market and whether it will bounce back after COVID?   Also whether this crazy market will crash in East Bay . And do you think it is a wise move to sell in East Bay and move to SF now?

[Chris Mason]

Buying in SF is a bet that a) "jumbo" loans will return to 2019-levels of availability and b) working from home is going to largely go away once the economy re-opens.

For b, your guess is as good as mine.

For a, you can track the general ease of availability of jumbo loans at the following link. March 2020 was a 37% decline in availability. August 2020 was another 8.9% decline. And so on in between. When your friend told you that Wells Fargo asked her for a $1,000,000 deposit into a Wells Fargo checking account in exchange for doing her jumbo refinance, that's what we're talking about when we say "general ease of availability" -- asking someone for a $1,000,000 deposit to do their refi would be NOT "generally easy and available" for most people (lol).

It is not yet captured in any publicly facing data, but I'm seeing indications that jumbo may right now be turning the other direction.

https://www.mba.org/news-resea...