In Contract! Should I close?

[Alexander Reda]

Hey biggerpockets family!

I was hoping to get some input on this deal I'm in contract with. This will be my first value-add property that I will be purchasing out of state. 

I am purchasing this for $78k.. The market shows that my ARV could be anywhere between $120- $135. Bellow is the breakdown of the property.

ARV: $120k

REPAIRS: $25k-- Contractor says he can do it for 25k but "nail on the head is 30k."  he told me to have a contingency of 5k which I don't know if its a good thing or bad thing for a contractor to tell me how much I should have in reserves. I planned on having a contingency of 10-15% extra on the 25K repairs but that kind of through me off when he gave me his input. Should I expect it to be 30k in repairs now? The work should be done in 2 months but I based the rest of my numbers on 3 months. 

Holding-$3,860

Closing-$1,500

Total Cost: $35,360 (assuming 30k in repairs)

I will be doing a cash out refi (80% LTV) into a 30 year fixed rate. Keeping this property as a rental.

Rents in the area are between $800-$975.

With my finishes I should be able to get around $850-$925 for rent...

Do you think it is a good deal for an out of state investor on his first deal?

Thank you for your feedback!!