1031 Yes OR No? 1 Week left to Identify. Economy recessing hard?

[Brian Shaha]

Hey Everyone,

I am new on here, but I have seen some good posts so here we go!
My name is Brian, I am 28 and I am in the hotel industry.

Long story short - I usually like to purchase economy brand hotel assets around $35k - $42k / key @ <3X Revenue
This criteria for my purchases was pre-covid19

Right now I am seeing alot of properties come up for sale, but not at the price I anticipate they will be in 12-18 months from now.

I guess the biggest question is, is the economy going to recess hard? Should I just pay the $250k and hold onto about $550k hard cash and wait to invest?

My though process is that the 30% gains tax ($250k) I will have to pay will be offset by seeing hotels go into foreclosures and maybe purchase them at a discount far greater than $250K?

A property I paid $4MM for was purchased by an investor in 2013 at auction for $1MM cash.

Any opinions? This whole economic climate has me doubting myself or at-least my past experience which has only been in a strong economy.

Any other investment ideas? I am stuck on paying the gains tax or reinvesting.