Triplex opportunity - do these $'s really work? ADVICE PLEASE

[Rae Bryant]

Hello BP community - this is my first forum post :) After several sleepless nights I decided that it was time to turn to the professionals for guidance!

My initial REI plan was to BRRR however I came across an MLS listing for (2) turn-key Triplexes that are on adjacent lots. Met with the owner/agent and now I am second guessing. I cannot decipher if these $'s really work or I just want them to.....

PROS:  Owner has property managed the units himself for almost 30 years and stated he will 'be around' after the sell, knowing I am a newbie.  Seems to be fully transparent with history about units and tenants.  

Location - 15 Minutes from Downtown (state capital) - County has more than 1 million residents - County growth +21% last 10 years - 36% of households rent their homes.

Owner has offered to sell me (1) Triplex this year and the other next year. - Gives me more time to find 25% down-payment and helps him on taxes (per his accountant). Each Triplex down-payment = 1/3 of my cash on hand.

Units are 2 bed/1.5 baths with their own utilities.

CONS: Owner has valued tenant longevity over keeping units at market rates so increase of between 3 - 8% needed to match current/desirable rates. Known CAPEX = $12,000 w/i next 3 years for (2) new HVAC units.

Numbers below do NOT include Property Management Fee. Units are 30 miles away from my home.

FACTS: Current rents /offer $ = $145 Monthly Cash flow per door / Proforma Cap Rate 6.16% / Cash on Cash ROI 5.33% / Purchase Cap Rate 6.16% / 50% RULE -$211.80 Monthly Cash Flow

Market Rates (conservative)/offer $ = $167 Monthly Cash flow per door / Proforma Cap Rate 6.36% / Cash on Cash ROI 6.16% / Purchase Cap Rate 6.36% / 50% RULE -$126.80 Monthly Cash Flow
Thank you for your honest evaluation and expert insight on this - MUCH APPRECIATED!