Opening Up America Again - What Does This Mean for Real Estate

[Jorge Abreu]

I took the 18 page report released by Trump's committee yesterday and summarized it below.  

I hope we can all see the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s not going to be as easy as turning the light switch back on but hopefully this plan gets executed properly and we can get things going again. As we all know before Coronavirus came into the picture we were in a very strong economy and what seemed to be an everlasting up cycle in the market. There was some signs beginning to show the market getting a little soft. However, 2020 was looking to be another hot year. With more of a slow down in 2021. I focus on acquiring large Multifamily properties and I'm still very bullish on this type of Real Estate Asset. 

What are your thoughts on the plan to Open America Again and what this means for Real Estate Investing? 

The administration's 18-page guidance document details three phases to reopen state economies, with each phase lasting, at minimum, 14 days. They include some recommendations across all three phases including good personal hygiene and employers developing policies to ensure social distancing, testing and contact tracing.

Phase one includes much of the current lockdown measures such as avoiding non-essential travel and not gathering in groups. But it says large venues such as restaurants, places of worship and sports venues "can operate under strict physical distancing protocols".If there is no evidence of a resurgence of the coronavirus, phase two allows non-essential travel to resume. 

The guidance says schools can reopen and bars can operate "with diminished standing-room occupancy".Under phase three, states which are still seeing a downward trend of symptoms and cases can allow "public interactions" with physical distancing and the unrestricted staffing of work-sites. Visits to care homes and hospitals can resume and bars can increase their standing room capacity.Some regions could begin returning to normal after a month-long evaluation period, at the earliest, according to the document.Dr Deborah Birx told Thursday's briefing that as states work through the three phases, they could allow for more and more employees to return to work in increments.

Phase three would be the "new normal", she said, and would still include suggestions that vulnerable people should avoid crowded spaces.

[Karen Margrave]

There's no way to calculate what all of this is going to do to the country, but my opinion is we need to get it up and running as soon as possible, in a safe way. What this has shown is that all the scientific data that they have means absolutely nothing, because there are as many opinions and models as there are scientists and universities; all coming to different conclusions, and so far none have been accurate. None of the models factor in the new drug treatments, or the mistakes made early on with ventilators that caused deaths, etc. The whole thing is a crap shoot. Until everyone in the country can be tested for antibodies, there's no true way to calculate anything. The virus has probably been here for far longer than imagined and more people are immune than realized. We cannot shut America down until nobody new gets the virus. 

As to the economy, there's so many unknowns. How many people didn't pay rent and will have a huge nut to crack when things start back up and won't be able to ? Are we going to have a huge increase in evictions?  How many property owners aren't going to be able to carry their properties, and go into foreclosure? How many businesses won't have the capital to restart?  Will suppliers for the various businesses and industries be able to get things out fast enough to help? How many offices are closing because they can't carry the overhead? Is there going to be a glut of office space?  Retail? 

@Joel Owens curious as to what you're seeing and hearing on different niches, office space, hospitality, retail, etc.? 

What about manufacturing, are we going to see a race back to America? Will consumers be willing to pay the prices? What will tax rates be to cover all the "free' money that's been given away? 

EVERYTHING is going to be changed forever. Let's just hope this ends soon before we can't come back.