Current Events - Would You Do This Creative Vacation Rental Deal?

[Matthew Manus]

Hey guys, I know this is subjective but I'm interested in hearing others insights on a deal I have lined up.

I've been in negotiation on this property for about 2 weeks, and now we're at a point where we have agreed on terms and normally I'd be all for signing the purchase agreement, however I'm concerned over current events. 

About the property:

High-end mountain house in Brevard, NC located in gated golf-course community, home located on the lake. Community has clubhouse, pool, hiking trails, etc. Most homes selling between 350k-500k. 

Deal Numbers:

Property as-is worth ~415k

Purchasing for 360k

Taking 295k 1st position loan "subject to"

Seller is financing 30k in 2nd position 

Downpayment of 35k at closing 

Here's the sticking point - I've analyzed this as a AirBnb/VRBO rental and based on past rents in peak season, the property gets $300-$350/night. For 335 available nights/year, at conservative $275/night, 60% occupancy, net operating income is 39.4k, with cash after debt = 12k...about 11% cap rate. I've included utilities, management, HOA, Cap Ex, maintenance, etc. On paper these numbers look good, however there is obvious concern over people vacationing over the next few months, when the overhead will be approximately $2300/month.

Another exit strategy would be to sell it and make a small profit, but I also have concern over people being in the market for vacation rentals at a time like this. 

I'm happy with the deal I've negotiated but feeling reluctant to pull the trigger on this one. I'm curious to what other vacation rental owners or even those currently weighing a similar are thinking? Thanks for any insights!