September 2019 Massachusetts Closed sales stats

[Timothy Lewman]

I have my September update of housing stats for Massachusetts closed sales. We have some trend reversals and some that just continue in the same direction. 🏠🏠🏠

I follow two sources of info 1. The Warren Group (www.thewarrengroup.com), which tracks ALL recorded sales/transfers from each municipality in the state. This includes family transfers for $1.00, sales that are not listed on the MLS and sales from the MLS. These sources skew the data down for sales prices and up for transactions. They don't provide a robust amount of data, which is why I primarily rely on source #2. 2. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MArealtor.com) which ONLY tracks MLS listed closed sales - does not include off market or infra-family sales. This gives a more accurate representation of the retail market in MA.

With that out of the way, the Warren Group reports a median sales price for single family homes (SFH) is $399,000 up 5.15% from September 2018's figure of $379,450. (👩‍🏫 Math teacher says median = half the sales are above and half are below that amount; it's not the mathematical average). They also report that closed sales volume is 5,017, inching up 1.57% from Sept 2018 4,942.

MARealtor.com provides a much more robust set of data that I track and have multiple charts/graphs down below. They show the median retail sales price is $410,000, up 5.13% from Sept 2018's figure of $390,000.

Closed sales checks in at 4,733, up 2.42% from Sept 2018's figure of 4,621. Doing the math, we have 284 sales (6% of closed sales) that are off-market (=5,017-4,733). So if you were looking for a flip or wholesale project in September you had 284 SFH to choose from in Massachusetts.

What is driving these price gains? Inventory changes! Inventory = the total number of houses for sale, once a home's status changes to pending or contingent it is no longer included in this number. Inventory collapsed 11.18% to 14,129 from Sept 2018's figure of 15,907. Inventory changes are fraught with wild fluctuations, see the Yoy % change graph.

New listings = Listing what a status date in the Sept. reporting period. Didn't change much, 7,235 down 2.02% from Sept 2018 7,384.

When you combine the draw down in inventory with slightly lower new listings = price pop as the buyers chased fewer properties. I wish there was some measure of how many buyers there are that didn't get to purchase/close so we could get a fuller picture.

Enjoy the charts and graphs - it helps to fill in the gaps and shows the trends. In real estate we focus on year over year (YOY) changes due to the seasonal nature of buying/selling in New England. Frigged temps, holidays, and piles of snow discourages listings and home shoppers. 🤧 If there is anything you'd like to see that isn't include, drop me a line I might be able to conjure it up!