Rehab Cost Estimation

[Nathan Braithwaite]

I have my sights on a 4 bed 2 bath foreclosed single family home in the Tulsa OK area. I have walked through the place and have done my analysis, but would like your opinion on the accuracy of my rehab numbers.

Similar properties in the area show a market value of 210k-230k. They are asking for 173k, which to me is very high. I'm thinking about offering 100K. The place needs a ton of remodeling, as is common with foreclosed properties. Here are my hopefully conservative estimated repairs:

New Roof - $8k, Replace all Flooring - $9K, Complete Kitchen Remodel - $10k, Remodel Bathrooms - $8k, Interior Paint - $7k, New AC/Heater - $8k, Exterior Repairs - $1k (it looks good)
Total Repair cost is $51K

I only have 20K in cash, so I will need to initially purchase it with hard money with an estimated cost of 15k.

70 percent rule says at $210K that I should only have about $147K invested in this deal. I potentially will purchase this home as my primary residence, so I'd be ok with the 80 percent rule, which would be about $168K. That's where I come up with the offer price of 100K. It is significantly less than the asking price, but it is what makes financial sense to me.

My main question is if my rehab assumptions are accurate.