70% Rule, ARV-now or then? (seasonality, appreciation/crash...)

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Shortened edited version. What's your take on when to evaluate the ARV? Assumed future value or at time of purchase? 

read original novel below if you want to bore yourself with my extreme wordiness

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Other than 2 profitable personal residence purchases, I'm an investor virgin trying to better understand the "rules of thumb" for future opportunities. I get the basics but I think I'm looking for the outside the box response maybe-or maybe some further discussion/your personal approach at it... 

I'm a relatively new agent in the upper midwest(SD) and knowing the market takes a severe turn during the holidays and winter, as well as heavily climbing price increase over the last few years (which I can't see sustaining=future post/question). 

***here's the question*** Sooo, in my situation if I were to try to do most of the rehab myself(not very e-myth'ish of me...but for more of the hands on "experience") knowing it will take extra time, in your opinion is the 70% rule safe for $150-225k priced SFR(assuming it's a good property) for a live in flip,  in a possible plateau'ing (or worse) market?

      -That price range would knock out the 1% rule for a rental in my area(unless a unicorn duplex pops up) and that price range would range from a 3/2/1 to 4/2/2 roughly

Looking for some insight from more knowledgeable seasoned investors. I intend on asking another question/post about market history and what causes a "buble to pop" as well as the aftermath when a market sees such price increase in such short amount of time; which I hope to piece a good strategy together from. If you've made it this far-sorry for all the shift+_'s (()/"")