Do these Rehab Estimate Pass the Smell Test? BRRRR Strategy

[Matt Moore]

Home is listed at 84,900, 3/2/2 (1450 sf built in 1974) with rent expected of about $1,150.  It was stated that it would need a full rehab.  Turns out it was a 2/2/2 it it needs everything!!!  2/2/2 homes that are completely or mostly updated are going for $95-$110k.  Home is block and has good bones and more sq feet than most 2/2 due to the addition of a bonus room.  Bathrooms and Kitchen are original.

At least as a learning experience since this is my 1st deal as an official investor :) (have done a few other rehabs/house hacks), I wanted to try to estimate it out and see what it would be worth offering.  There is not the time or opportunity to do a full inspection (water and electric are turned off) so I need to assume everything.

Here is my somewhat rough estimate on the rehab.

It is possible that I could rent it out without full bath rehabs and maybe the roof can be repaired. 

So to walk away with at least 20% equity, I would need to be in it for something around 30-40k.

So my question is, are my rehab estimates too high?  The rehabs I have done in the past were all do-it-yourself so the cost was much less but there is so much here, I won't be able to do it all.

Even if they accepted a 30-40k offer, I would have alot of cash tied up in this and if the ARV does not come out, the refi may not work in my favor. I am not scared of the work, just does not seem to be enough up side on this one due to the high % of rebab to ARV.

Thank you

Matt