Is a bubble forming in Reno, Nevada?

[Cameron Don Meals]

Hello everyone,

My Name is Cameron Meals and I'm a newbie investor in the Reno/Tahoe area searching for my first house hack. The big question that has been festering in this particular market: Is a real estate bubble forming again? And is now a good/decent time to invest?

I have heard both sides - half of the people saying RE will trend upwards for several years given gainfull employment opportunities and a adventageous business climate along with a continued shortage of housing; I have also heard to wait to invest until around the 3rd quarter of 2019 when housing is more abundant and the economic trend demands a downward curve. 

Here are some insights from http://renorealtyblog.com/2018/07/june-median-sale...

Year-over-year median house price is $385,000 up 13.2% or $45,000 from June of 2017

Year-over-year home sales in June down 25% from 763 in 2017 to 590 in 2018 

Only a month and a half of available inventory 

Being my first RE venture, I'm very indifferent about the market and timid to buy into a losing situation. Im finding it difficult to find gross scheduled rents above 1% of listing prices.

 I would appreciate any insight from the community!  

[Cary Crites]

Disclosure: I'm a not-so-sophisticated, small-time RE investor.

My wife and I have owned rental units in Reno since 2010, when the streets were running with blood from the 2008-2011 downturn. Even at a time when numerous people had lost their savings, when all of the casinos were at the edge of bankruptcy, many people were fleeing the area, and before any announcements of Tesla and the other large employment drivers, we've seen less than 1% vacancy on our rentals and have had 30+ inquiries every time we put a unit on the market out here. 

Obviously, there are many factors involved, most of which are likely above my head. However, we've noticed that a few contributors to our success in this area have stood out. We have put a lot of time into attractive & effective marketing materials (copy, great photos). We have focused on our unique strengths, and created narratives around the "lifestyle" of our rentals properties. We reinforce these narratives when meeting in person with prospective renters and bring them into the story. And lastly, we have always kept our rent just under market rate, but never pushing the envelope. This way, we have less vacancy (costly!) and have a larger pool of candidates to select from. So far, we have had nothing but 13 amazing renters over this time. We respect our renters and give them space to enjoy their life. They respect us back and stay well past their lease expiration. 

Assuming I take my time to ensure that we cashflow positive, setting aside for future vacancy, capex, etc, I'm comfortable to continue investing in the Reno area, even with the possibility of deflation in the near future. Again, I realize it's not a sophisticated approach, but since I'm all about the long-term holding game, I'll just wait it out until things revive, if needed.