Duplex Purchase Question

[Ramon Purifoy]

I've got a potential deal that I would like to get your opinion on.

I'm negotiating with an off-market seller for a Duplex I intend to keep for a rental in a market the is relatively hot for SFR and doesn't usually offer many multifamily properties. Average SFR sell price is $292k. Numbers Below

Asking Price: 229,000 (They based this on the city tax record)

Subject: 3bd/2ba each side. 2400 sqft total. 

Neighborhood: B to B+. This area appreciates very well and is highly desired.

Current rent: Side A $1000/mo. 9 months left on lease.  Side B - Rented to daughter, not collecting rent (would have to pay market or leave when I take over). I expect to be able to comfortably rent them at $1200/ea, $1300 with upgrades.

Motivation: They responded to my mailer. Has a couple other properties. Is older and considering unloading some assets, but general motivation seems low.

Condition: I haven't gotten a chance to walk the property yet. The outside looks to be in good shape from my drive-by. Owner says it will need basic tenant turnover maintenance (paint, carpet, cleaning, etc.) after 3 yr tenant, but no major issues.

Rent: 2400-2600 (at market rent). (2200 for initial 9 mos)

ARV: Est. $260k based on SFR, but difficult to tell with only one duplex sell in last 6-12 months.

Purchase: $229k

P&I: $1243/mo

Tax: $284/mo 

Ins: $100/mo (rough est.)

Utilities: None

Vacancy: $130/mo 5%

Maint: $130/mo 5%

CAPEX: $130/mo 5%

Loan: $229k with 20% down at 7% ant 2 pts

Cash Flow: $323/mo total (at 2600/mo income)

Comps: There aren't many comps. Most of the similar duplexes were sold in 2014. The only other duplex that sold recently was at $140 and it looks to have been another off market deal so I can't tell the condition of the property. This properties tax appraisal was $192k.

Other similar SFR are currently on market at $260-270. Other solds are $270 (not upgraded) to $315 (upgraded).

My original phone offer was "I usually offer somewhere btw $160-180, but he wasn't interested. I'm considering another offer closer to $200k ($210k max, but I feel that may be a bit high).

I like the deal and I like the area (my kid plays soccer at a field within walking distance from the property), but this being my first recent deal, I just wanted to make sure I don't have "must buy something now syndrome", but also not being too cautious. I still haven't seen the property in person since we didn't come to an agreeable range over the phone (I've learned to hold my offer until I see the property now).

I'm open to all thoughts/suggestions.