Seller market, offering listed price even if it might no appraise

[Alberto C.]

Hi everybody. I am planning to buy my first house, I saw it on saturday and I need a suggestion. It is a seller market, it is hard to find a nice place. I have been looking for a decent house in a decent location for 3 months, I saw like 10 houses (price range 200k-380k), and most were in terrible conditions or in good condition but next to superloud 4-lane streets. The house i saw yesterday is in a great neighborhood, looks great, 1979 house, 4 bdr 2bath and 1/2. 0.3 acres lot. The zillow estimate (I know it counts little) is 317k. The weird thing is that my agent wrote me on Friday saying that a house is coming up in the neighborhood I am looking for, and she set me an appointment on Saturday to see the house, and the seller agent was there too. House has brand new luxury bathrooms(2010), new roof (2014), new kitchen(2011), new plumbing. They said 2 doctors live there, kids left and they are downsizing. The sellers wanted to price at 370k, the agents at 360. They said that cause of the many upgrades its hard to price it and they were going to meet with 2 other agents on Monday to decide the price. They said that if I was going to offer between 360 and 370k the house would have not been put on market. I said i could not offer more than 320k with 20% down, cause that's what i was prequalified for, and on monday it was on the market for 365k. Now i got an updated prequalification letter from the lander for 370k with 20% down. What should I do? my lender and my agent both said it might not appraise for 365k but a bit lower. Agent did comparisons and median for area is 325k, and average is 350k. This including all upgrades. What i should do? I want this house pretty badly but I do not want to overpay it. And I want the furniture, it looks so nice, and i have no furniture and i do not want to waste time to shop around. The agent asked the sellers if they are willing to sell all the furniture and they said yes. I have a few questions:

1) I was thinking to offer 365$, with an addendum that says offer is valid only if all furniture is included for free, and also with a appraisal contingency clause. My plan is hoping that they accept and that the appraisal comes down to 330k-340k and then i kindly ask the seller to cut the price. I can also walk away with no loss if he doesnt accept to bring it down, correct? I would have no problem to add the extra cash if they dont want to negotiate, and if I feel like I really want the house.

2) i see in this website people hoping that the houses they are trying to buy appraise at the offered price. Why? I mean, i see the point of not wanting to put extra cash down, but dont you get a chance to negotiate? At least for a house that you wanna have so bad as primary residence, and since its seller market with few houses, isnt it worth to offer more and hope the appraiser brings down and seller accepts to cut the price too? what am I missing?

3) if i do it this way, how much do I risk that the appraiser is friend with the seller and the agent and he will appraise it for 365k even if not worth that value?

4) how much does the appraised value matter for the future? Is it the one used for property taxes? Or not really?if yes, isnt it better if it appraises lower and we pay less taxes?

Thank you very much

A.