Armchair Estimation of ARV? Confusion....

[Tom De Moya]

Current landlord of two properties (total 3 units) and living in one unit. Getting ready for BRRRR. When running numbers, I am having trouble appraising multi-units and understanding an appraisers strategy when looking at a multi-units here in northern Vermont. I have mapped out GRM, cost per unit, cost per sqft, and cost per bed for many properties in two markets I am looking to invest. How can I make sure the appraiser reaches my goal ARV?

I am seeing some turnkey properties with great cashflow listed at prices where the GRM and fellow ratios are below market. Could I pick these up, let them "season" and reappraise later on for a higher appraisal ( while matching comps) with minimal work?

Is it me or is the appraisal process a black hole of confusion? My friend had a duplex appraised for a divorce last year and it came in at $300k. 7 months later he did it again for a HELOC and it crossed $330k. 10% in a few months with no improvements? Seems like the appraiser played nice with the bank trying to hit the HELOC number he wanted. Is this normal?

And last question, how does an appraiser find comps in small rural towns where multi-units sales are far and few between? Where I'm looking the next  solid "group" of recent comps is about 19 miles away. Would the appraiser compare to these because it is in the same market? 

[Rob Cook]

Tom, I was disappointed nobody has answered or commented!  I would love to read their responses!  I cannot really answer much of your questions myself, other than to say, generally, that appraising is always and ART, not a science. So you have to learn values for yourself, and looks like you have a penchant for analysis, so just keep doing that, and the feedback loop will give you confidence over time, in your own OPINION of value, which is the most important one!