Newbie's possible 1st (and 2nd) deal. Need help with the numbers

[Karen Yorski]

So I just got off the phone with listing agent that I called about a duplex listed on the MLS for $165000. Located in central Connecticut. It's a very middle class neighborhood. It's an "as is" property subject to probate. No pictures available but one front photo of home. I drove by, outside is well kept with huge back yard. NIce neighborhood mix of single family and multi family walking distance (1/2 mile) to center of town busing, groceries etc. Rents are $975 and $750. Tells me $750 is because older couple has lived there for 16 plus years and no one raised their rents. $975 has lived there for 10 years but is leaving at end of the month. Agent tells me that $975 apt could use a little cosmetic work but $750 apt is in basically perfect condition and older couple is very nervous about sale. Says both could rent for $975 or more. Also tells me that this and another are the last of an estate and basically beneficiaries want them sold. Said they haven't lowered the price because they would have to go to probate to do that and that's a waste of money. It's "definitely" negotiable. In fact told me about a crazy offer she received for the whole estate a year ago, basically a quarter of the asking price for each property. She didn't go to the executor with the offer because it was insane but she gave me the impression a more realistic cut rate offer just might be accepted. In fact she begin sort of pushing both homes on me. The second home in the same area (haven't swung by it yet) is within a half mile of this one, same situation, walking distance to town etc) Also $165000, rents $750 and $800, we didn't get into great detail on the second property other than rents, location and again just internal cosmetic work, long term tenants also).

So I have several questions...after I see both properties and IF I want to put an offer on one or both what should my offer price be?

 I'm a newbie at numbers so: (I think my percentages may be way off,  I've read so many different things)

Rents: $975+$750=$1725  (potentially $1950+)

Property taxes: 4000/yr  or $333/mo

Insurance: $1000/yr (sound about right?) or$83/mo

Vacancy rate 10% $172.50/mo or 5% $86.25/mo

Repairs: 10% $172.50/mo

Management: 10% $172.50/mo (we will initially manage)

Cap Ex: 10-20% $172.50 - $345/mo (ave 15% $258.75)

So:  $333+$83+$172.50+$172.50+$172.50+$258.75= $1192.25

Mortgage: $150,000 at 5% with 20% ($30,000) down = $644.19/mo (lose $111.44/mo)

$140,000 at 5% with 20% ($28,000) down = $601.24/mo (lose $68.49/mo)

$130,000 at 5% with 20% ($26,000) down = $558.29/mo (breakeven)

$120,000 at 5% with 20% ($24,000) down = $515.35/mo (make $42.40/mo)

So help me correct my numbers please. I think they are way off.

Also, do I have to finance with 20% down?  I can on one but not if interested in both. What am I looking at in total outlay in cash for closing etc.  Also if I have not factored in fixing up the place (or places).

So is this a waste of my time?  Can this (these) properties work)