Another Would You Buy It Thread?

[Bill R.]

4-Plex located in a C'ish area of Las Vegas.  It's part of a community of about 20 identical 4-Plexes.  Did a drive-by and it seemed to be an oasis in what was otherwise neighborhoods I probably wouldn't have any interest in investing in.  Lots of people outside with their kids.  Seemed to have a sense of community.  Just an entirely different feel.  

Community pool, HOA maintenance of common areas, common play area for children.

Currently fully occupied.  Seems to be very little vacancy amongst the other identical 4-Plexes.  

All units identical 2-bed, 1 bath.  

Units were built 30 years ago.  Since units are occupied owner does not want to show the interiors unless there's an offer on the table.  

Asking $200,000

Rents:  $600 on two units, $650 on 2 units.  PM suggests raising to $650 on two units currently renting for $600.  Currently total monthly rent $2500.  

Other Income (late fees):  $1000 a year / $83 per mo 

Vacancy @ 5% = $125 (my estimate)

Maint @ 7% = $175 (my estimate)

Capex @ 7% = $175 (my estimate)

PM @ 8% = $200 (actual)

HOA = $550 p/m (actual)

Water/Sewer paid by owner = $100 (supposed actual, must confirm)

Insurance = $125 (according to owner)

Property Tax = $106

Total monthly expenses = $1556

Mortgage @ 4% - with 20% down - (30 year) = $764

Cash Flow = $180

CoC = 5.09%

Cap Rate = 5.66

I want to offer $175,000 with $35,000 down which would bring the mortgage to $668 and the CoC becomes 8.82% and the Cap Rate becomes 6.47.

Looks like the HOA is a deal killer. It does mean my maint and capex might be a little high because the HOA maintains some aspects of the property (no driveway costs, etc) but even if I take $10 or $20 off those costs it still seems tough.

Thoughts?