Flip or Hold?

[Tony Castronovo]

I recently picked up a property, perhaps a bit in haste without crunching the numbers ahead of time as I normally do.  Normally, my strategy has been buy & hold.  But the numbers don't seem to make a lot of sense on this one.  I have flipped one house and learned a lot...but it was a flop.  I have three rentals and have had good success.  I would give it another go on a flip but my concern is putting the property on the market during the winter months.  Below are some numbers:

• Purchase Price:  $155,000
• Estimated Repairs:  $20,000
• ARV: $220,000
• Closing Costs (2 closes - initial HML, refi to conventional): $15,000

Flipping this would probably get me around $15,000 profit after commissions, etc.  I could put in less to get it rent ready (likely $500-7000).  But I wouldn't expect to have the house appraise for $220k if that is all I did.  So my cash out of pocket could be around $30k + closing costs and a cash slow around $200/mo with less than 6% cash on cash return.  The only silver lining in this scenario is some equity capture (maybe around $30-40k).

How would you approach this one?