The market temperature and its future.

[Frank Lienert]

In my market (Sacramento) and in a few outlying smaller markets, real estate has been pretty hot with prices climbing ever higher, approaching pre-crash levels. A few months ago I was noticing things cooling off a bit... lots of homes on the market, (upper mid and upper price ranges) reducing their prices. I even heard indications that the San Francisco area was showing the slightest signs of an ease up. Then came Brexit and rates going down and that brief trend seems to have stopped. 

As I've read repeatedly many are expecting a national cool down in real estate. My question to all of you, what's the temp of your local market? Have you noticed any minor trends like I mentioned above? Do you see a national RE cooldown/plateau/downturn on the horizon (next 12-24 months)? Given the domestic political climate and numerous international factors I can't see real estate not being affected in someway. Curious what you all think. 

[Gordon Cuffe]

There were 2446 homes for sale on the mls in the Sacramento county area in June 2016. There were 2894 homes for sale in mls in June 2015 as a comparision. We were at the lowest number of homes for sale in Feb 2016 at 1662 homes for sale. Traditionally things slow down a bit in the winter months. It is still a sellers market. If we get up to 3000 homes for sale in mls then it is changing from a sellers market to neutral. The number of months inventory was a 1.4 months in June 2016. In June 2011 there were 4436 homes for sale when we had a buyers market just a year away from changing to a sellers market. By feb 2012 we only had 2632 homes for sale on mls that was the start of the rapid appreciation for Sacramento. Next year with a new president and possible higher interest rates and possible more inventory should be interesting.