What to offer on foreclosure

[Varma Adduri]

Dear Members,

I have a question on how much to offer on a foreclosure property. Here are some details. 

Foreclosure Estimate is 220k. Its built in 2000, Townhouse. The bank possessed it around 2 years back and have been listing it since (As per zillow). 

Fair market ARV can be around 220k and i am assuming all the reno can be done under 15k. Considering 10k in closing and 15k in reno, my price can be 195k.

Obviously i am trying to make some money. If i account in 10% profit my quote can be around 175k. This is the maximum i am willing to offer. 

1. Can you suggest me where i should start my quote at? 125k?

2. Do you think i even have a chance at 175k?

3. I saw a similar house in homepath. Different numbers but the list price is little above market value. Any tips there to where i should start?

This is my first post in BiggerPockets. So please bear with me if my question is too basic. I am looking forward for your help.