UPDATE - Single Family homes will continue to go up to 2024

[Ken A.]

(Updated since 2012)

Everyone will be shocked at the much higher prices by 2022-2024. Gains will be higher in the better areas. What can actually drag the “gains” are the stagnant areas that will never go up. Don’t invest there. The Biggest points for MUCH higher prices (since 2011-2012) are

1. Too much demand chasing too little “retail” ready supply (Hello Economics 101).

2. Interest rates around 4%. Are you kidding me – Have you looked at the last 50-60 years-that is way too low and makes it much more affordable.

3. GREED – This will push Better Real Estate much higher – IT NEVER FAILS. There is way way way too much CASH on the sidelines – THEY ALWAYS chase higher yields.

I don’t know what #3 above will exactly look like. It could be Crazy Investor Loans – giving loans on investment Real Estate packaged by Wall Street (think about the Stupid Loans they gave to Home Owners – So why not Stupid Loans to Investors eventually – just a thought.

Watch how the FED always mentions Housing Prices, etc. The Gov’t will probably want to find a way to get banks, etc. to make loans. The Government actually LOVES INFLATION. Don’t be fooled. They (gov’t) can then pay off their debt with cheaper money.

I’ll be selling pretty much everything in 2022-2024 as GREED BUBBLE inflates.

I’m still buying $30K homes with $700-$800 rents. That’s my niche. These homes used to sell for $100K+ during bubble. History may not repeat, but it will probably Rhyme.

Added Note:

What brings new home buyers into the market? What makes them finally pull the trigger and buy?

For the typical home buyer, housing value has little to do with actual home prices. And it has everything to do with monthly payments.

Two things have happened… 1) we saw the worst bust in house prices in generations and we still haven't fully recovered and 2) mortgage rates are near all-time lows, below 4%.

I don't think people really understand how incredible current mortgage rates are. The chart below shows mortgage rates since 1900. As you can see, today's sub-4% levels are unprecedented…

With mortgage rates this low, housing is now more affordable than ever. It combines home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes.)And that means home prices could still move significantly higher.

How much could home prices move?

Based on normal housing affordability, fair value for U.S. housing is around $261,500. So right now, median home prices are well below fair value. Take a look…


The gap between housing prices and fair value has been closing since 2012, when home prices began to move higher. But housing is still $53,500 below historical fair value. There's plenty of upside in U.S. housing!

I've been writing this for years, but the story is still true today. It's still one of the best times in American history to buy a home.

[Matt Motil]

You fail to throw in the monetary factor into the mix. What most people on the surface of these types of pieces fail to bring into the equation is the fact that the US Dollar and the global economy is no longer on the gold standard. This is like comparing Babe Ruth to Alex Rodriguez for baseball stats. 

In August 1971 Richard Nixon completed the process of removing the US monetary system from the gold standard and thus we can now make money in this country without actually having any. 

How does this affect mortgage rates, the housing industry, and the overall economy? It's unpredictable and that's the problem. The central banks now have complete control of liquidity in the market and this drives or shrinks growth. 

The numbers you show look great on the surface, but they are based on a solid foundation in the overall economic system and we don't have that. Not saying what you're predicting won't come to pass, but everyday provides new opportunities for people in the government to either get it right or make huge mistakes that ripple through the rest of the world. 

Buying RE for speculative purposes can work out great, but what 2006-2011 showed us is that it can also bite you in the *** too