Historians Perspective needed - RE crash of 2007 -2010

Historians Perspective needed - RE crash of 2007 -2010

Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes

I would like to hear from several of the historians here that went through the most recent housing collapse back in 2007 through 2010 regarding what happened to their buy and hold strategy in that kind of environment.  Specifically, how did the collapse of the housing market/prices affect you personally if you were executing a buy and hold strategy at the time of the collapse?  If homes were already mortgaged and were cash flow positive at the time, despite losing considerable equity and maybe no longer being able to leverage any of that equity (or lack thereof) and thereby significantly slowing expansion plans for a few short years, did the collapse of home pricing pose a significant risk or financial set back to you in other forms such as loans being called due (particularly Private money or hard money loans as opposed to conventional), were you forced to sell properties for a significant loss for some reason that I am not understanding or seeing, were rents considerably affected in the downward direction for a short period of time, or where there other significant financial set backs you encountered as a result of the collapse of housing values that may not be easily identifiable to a newbie such as myself?   As I see it, there were several downsides at the time including and clearly not limited to:

Equity loss

Tightening of Credit

Over-Leveraged folks losing homes to foreclosure

Job losses causing some folks to not be able to meet financial obligations (rents)

But these could easily be offset by some of the positives at the time, particularly for those in a buy and hold position:

Increased pool of renters as folks lost their homes

Increased demand forcing rental prices up (after some period of time of course)

Banks (private lenders??) favoring those that were not over leveraged

Reduced interest rates

If you had homes at the time that were mortgaged, whether conventional or through private money and they were fully rented at the time with good LTV's prior to the crash, I would think the positive cash flow would position you well to weather that storm assuming your loans were locked in. Provided you weren't trying to dump under performing properties at the time, you may have experienced some short term heightened turnover if tenants lost jobs in the recession, but I still would think that replacement tenants would have been easily found as it is not like all of sudden millions of people no longer needed housing to stay in, so everyone would eventually land somewhere, right, particularly if you are in an upper income area, where unemployment wasn't nearly as badly affected? I can see commercial real estate taking a much stronger hit as businesses closed and vacancy rates skyrocketed, but I am thinking that residential at the time for savvy REI's would have had experienced minimal downsides that just required you to hunker down, conserve cash and wait for the recovery to open up a windfall of cheap properties and huge opportunities. Did you all of sudden experience similarly large vacancy rates for some reason that I am not seeing, were you unable to meet payment obligations for some reason, did you lose significant property outside of losing equity positions, did private money lenders all of sudden call in loans if they got hurt in markets?

Any thoughts you can share on this risk factor and experience would be much appreciated as I am preparing to rebut my wife's inevitable concerns that there is too much risk inherent in real estate investing and I am not entirely sure there still aren't bubbles being created by the abundance of cash that has been infused into the economy by a print happy fed.  And sorry for the long winded post here, I just wanted to make sure I was being clear about my concerns/questions and need to fully understand this risk before jumping in with both feet, full throttle.  Thanks in advance for your thoughts and insights.  

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Visalia-Fresno, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 863 votes
10y

Between 2008-2012 I purchased the majority of my rentals.  Properties have doubled in price, rents are up and debt was cheap and easy for me to get.  

On the other side of the coin during that period I was working for a publicly traded company.  We were downsizing, laying off grown adults that had high paying jobs, children at home and clueless.  The fear and noise in the office kicked my a** into high gear to accumulate income producing assets to quickly get out of the rat race. 


Franklin

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  • Jerome KaidorPro Member
    Investor · Hayward, CA · Member since 2013 · 139 posts · 65 votes
    10y

    Had a serious effect on our operations.  We own apartment complexes in Fresno & Stockton CA.  In 2008, like by magic, the phone just stopped ringing.  All the sharpies who were buying houses to flip couldn't flip them.  So they rented them out instead.  Most of our Section 8 tenants went away because they could now rent a house on their voucher.  Some of them actually came back to our Fresno complex because 1.  They discovered that renting a house was more expensive because you have to pay water-sewer-garbage.  2.  We have working central AC, which is a big deal in the Valley.

    We had to lower our rents.  Luckily, we had a REALLY good adjustable rate mortgage, and it went down enough to cover the difference, and we still made money.

  • Realtor · Fresno, CA · Member since 2013 · 471 posts · 225 votes
    10y

    I've never been accused of being a historian - but I was in Fresno during that time frame dealing with real estate. Unfortunately, I don't have much to analyse about how it affected me considering that I sold off most of my rentals for double what i paid JUST before the crash. I would like to say it was my sharp intellect- deep foresight - and mastery of the market - instead it was timing and good luck - I was liquidating them to start up a new business that had nothing to do with real estate - shortly afterwords the market came crashing down - we did still own one SFR - the only SFR I ever owned and it was completely underwater - we could not keep up the payments on it and it would not sell for anywhere near what owed on it - however we did leverage the heck out of it just before the sky started to fall so got some money out of it at least. Meanwhile people were squatting and getting paid $5000 to walk away from their home - and here we just turned our keys over like suckers. The good news was that we among the fist to start filing for foreclosure so we didn't have to wait too long to get our next property and the market was still low enough to get a good deal.

    In terms of tenants leaving - I think that was a different situation back then and they have tightened up standards a lot since then - it's no longer a situation where someone can borrow %100 on a home and move out of your rental - it takes some saved up money now.  I f you do your due diligence and run the numbers  - being sure to be positive cash flow from the beginning , then market fluctuations shouldn't bother you if you are in it for the long haul - I used to say that I didn't care what the market did cause I was collecting rent - not selling my house. Also, it is universally known that in real estate, the deals come from individual situations - not necessarily  from the direction of the market - you can make money in a buyers market or a sellers market -  if can find the right deal, then it doesn't make a difference what the market is doing - you've got to figure that in every transaction - SOMEONE is making some money - the key is to put yourself in a position where it is YOU who is making the money. That means doing some research , knowing your market, always being on the lookout for a deal and knowing how to run your numbers. Good luck - please keep us updated on your progress!

  • Rock Hill, SC · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Cory Mccarthy:

    I would like to hear from several of the historians here that went through the most recent housing collapse back in 2007 through 2010 regarding what happened to their buy and hold strategy in that kind of environment.  Specifically, how did the collapse of the housing market/prices affect you personally if you were executing a buy and hold strategy at the time of the collapse?  If homes were already mortgaged and were cash flow positive at the time, despite losing considerable equity and maybe no longer being able to leverage any of that equity (or lack thereof) and thereby significantly slowing expansion plans for a few short years, did the collapse of home pricing pose a significant risk or financial set back to you in other forms such as loans being called due (particularly Private money or hard money loans as opposed to conventional), were you forced to sell properties for a significant loss for some reason that I am not understanding or seeing, were rents considerably affected in the downward direction for a short period of time, or where there other significant financial set backs you encountered as a result of the collapse of housing values that may not be easily identifiable to a newbie such as myself?   As I see it, there were several downsides at the time including and clearly not limited to:

    Equity loss

    Tightening of Credit

    Over-Leveraged folks losing homes to foreclosure

    Job losses causing some folks to not be able to meet financial obligations (rents)

    But these could easily be offset by some of the positives at the time, particularly for those in a buy and hold position:

    Increased pool of renters as folks lost their homes

    Increased demand forcing rental prices up (after some period of time of course)

    Banks (private lenders??) favoring those that were not over leveraged

    Reduced interest rates

    If you had homes at the time that were mortgaged, whether conventional or through private money and they were fully rented at the time with good LTV's prior to the crash, I would think the positive cash flow would position you well to weather that storm assuming your loans were locked in. Provided you weren't trying to dump under performing properties at the time, you may have experienced some short term heightened turnover if tenants lost jobs in the recession, but I still would think that replacement tenants would have been easily found as it is not like all of sudden millions of people no longer needed housing to stay in, so everyone would eventually land somewhere, right, particularly if you are in an upper income area, where unemployment wasn't nearly as badly affected? I can see commercial real estate taking a much stronger hit as businesses closed and vacancy rates skyrocketed, but I am thinking that residential at the time for savvy REI's would have had experienced minimal downsides that just required you to hunker down, conserve cash and wait for the recovery to open up a windfall of cheap properties and huge opportunities. Did you all of sudden experience similarly large vacancy rates for some reason that I am not seeing, were you unable to meet payment obligations for some reason, did you lose significant property outside of losing equity positions, did private money lenders all of sudden call in loans if they got hurt in markets?

    Any thoughts you can share on this risk factor and experience would be much appreciated as I am preparing to rebut my wife's inevitable concerns that there is too much risk inherent in real estate investing and I am not entirely sure there still aren't bubbles being created by the abundance of cash that has been infused into the economy by a print happy fed.  And sorry for the long winded post here, I just wanted to make sure I was being clear about my concerns/questions and need to fully understand this risk before jumping in with both feet, full throttle.  Thanks in advance for your thoughts and insights.  

    Find jay Hinrichs on this site and pick his brain. One of the guys that has been in this business for a long time. I would really like to hear his response to this question.

    Alex

  • Visalia-Fresno, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 863 votes
    10y

    Between 2008-2012 I purchased the majority of my rentals.  Properties have doubled in price, rents are up and debt was cheap and easy for me to get.  

    On the other side of the coin during that period I was working for a publicly traded company.  We were downsizing, laying off grown adults that had high paying jobs, children at home and clueless.  The fear and noise in the office kicked my a** into high gear to accumulate income producing assets to quickly get out of the rat race. 


    Franklin

  • Realtor · Fresno, CA · Member since 2013 · 471 posts · 225 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Franklin Romine:

    Between 2008-2012 I purchased the majority of my rentals.  Properties have doubled in price, rents are up and debt was cheap and easy for me to get.  

    On the other side of the coin during that period I was working for a publicly traded company.  We were downsizing, laying off grown adults that had high paying jobs, children at home and clueless.  The fear and noise in the office kicked my a** into high gear to accumulate income producing assets to quickly get out of the rat race. 


    Franklin

     yeah ,, it was killing me to not be able to participate in one of the greatest fire sales of my time..I wish I had started talking with other investors sooner - I'm sure that I could have bird dogged a lot of deals - but my mindset was on using my own funds and my own lender ( after all, that's all I had ever done previously) so I was limiting myself and didn't take advantage. 

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Jay Orlauski, Thank you for your response. Love hearing that you liquidated right before the crash, never hurts to have a little dumb luck on your side from time to time, but I think you should absolutely take all the credit for that "sharp Intellect and deep foresight" that you knew it was going to come crashing down and was time to cash in. As for your comments on not being in a position to truly take advantage of the fire sale, I certainly hear you there and am kicking myself as well. I have been thinking about REI for the better part of 20 years now, but was so focused on my career, I never took the time to research well enough and back then Bigger Pockets didn't exist. I have sat through a couple of the free GURU programs over the years, but knew they were scams as soon as I got there, so luckily have never paid them any money, but I just didn't know how else to go about it. I sure wish I would have discovered BP about 5 years ago though. That being said, no better time to start than the present. Best of luck to you in the future.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Cory Mccarthy  all sectors crashed.... new construction  buy and hold , lending it was across the board.

    Now I know this site is primarily a buy hold /  specific areas got hammered

    Just ask the new crop of apartment syndicators they got smoking deals on units because people lost jobs and could not pay rent.

    Ask anyone who owned units in Vegas or PhX when construction cratered and half the renters left and went back to Mexico 

    Buy and hold on its face does not insulate you from an epic crash like that one.

    In some markets it probably did and defiantly for the higher grade assets.. but remember this was also a job loss issue. What people did is moved in with family..

    It was bad  that's all I can say... in every sector in 80% of the country.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Alex Franks, thanks also for your input.  I would love to hear from @Jay Hinrichs, @Joe Villeneuve, but the call out won't flag them as I haven't connected with either of them yet and apparently since they are not part of this string yet, it won't provide me the prompts below properly.  I will look to connect with them and ask them to provide some input as well.  Thanks for the suggestion!

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Jay Hinrichs, thanks for the input, you beat me to it.  I really appreciate your insights and obviously I have underestimated the impact to a large degree.  I was a home owner in the Michigan area at the time and I know my particular property value dropped about 40-50% alone, so I certainly am not oblivious to how much of blood bath it really was, but I also know (think) that certain states were hit a lot harder than others.  The obvious ones that everyone knows all too well were CA, NV, AZ, FL and my state MI (due primarily to the big three automakers), but it is my understanding (or at least perhaps my misguided belief) that some states were hardly affected at all, such as IA, KS, NE, WY.  Interestingly, I noticed that you flagged out higher grade assets as a possible exception, did I understand that correctly?  If so, why were higher grade assets a little more insulated?  Also you mentioned that it affected 80% of the country.  Am I reading this too literally or were there in fact some areas of the country less affected such as those I listed in the Midwest or rural areas where appreciation rates are lower to begin with and which weren't nearly as affected by the impact of the bubble that drove prices sky high prior to the crash.  Thanks in advance for any further clarification you can provide.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Franklin Romine Thanks for your input and its nice to hear about those that benefited in the wake of the clossal collapse.  I too look to this field as a way to escape the rat race and provide some sort of fall back position.  I agree with several of the wiser folks on BP here that there is money to made in almost every market, you just have to position yourself to ensure you are the one that is more likely to be the one that is making the money.  Sounds like you have done well and I applaud your courage to kick it into gear and take a proactive approach to your finances and best of luck to you in the future.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Cory Mccarthy  it was regionalized to a degree.

    Texas values held.. one of the few places that did.

    Certain parts of CA barely fell.

    PDX were we live fell 20 to 30% from all time highs.

    on the buy and hold though we were pretty strong here.. but still had issues I sold a group of 32 duplex's in 06 as a broker.. and about 1/3 went back to the bank by 2009.

    You had job loss every were..

    out here on the West it was in construction.    Example in our market PDX 2 million peeps we built 12k doors a year from 1992 until 2008  ( we were a little late to the crash)  in 2009  700 permits were pulled.

    who got affected.. literally anyone that touched construction.. from the builders the subs.. the suppliers the hard goods.. the appliances sellers.. etc etc.. and a lot of that work force rented.  so you had a lot of renters defaulting.  buying rentals or any other real estate prior to the crash was generally a fully leveraged transaction with many having almost no reserves.  The nursery industry which is huge here in Oregon ( supplying CA builders ) it tanked. who works in the nursery farms  ( Hispanic labor) what happened to them. they could not longer rent the C class.

    this played out in Las Vegas  PhX  central CA.  etc etc.

    I had sold in 06 ( I brokered it) a 65 unit to a client who paid about 80k a door cash. and of course he rode it out.. but he had vacancies..

    Then you take last decades syndicators and many flamed out spectacularly. and you have this decades syndicators buying the wreckage.. just look at BP post of those talking about their purchases a few years ago.. .they came from failed landlords.  many times with these deals.. anything over about a 15 to 20% vacancy and they can't make debt service.. Flameout.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, sorry it took me so long to get back to you, holidays really filled my sails this year and largely kept me off BP for a while.   I appreciate your input and quite honestly that is kind of what I was thinking about.  If you were not highly leveraged at the time and were able to have a longer term perspective on things, provided you were able to respond to changing market conditions and perhaps lower rent where necessary, if your cash flow was strong enough to begin with, it is likely that you could weather the storm as you have clearly done.   Just out of curiosity, how badly impacted were home values in the NJ area and have they completely recovered yet?  Here in MI, my value is still well below where it once was, albeit, I clearly recognize that it was over inflated at that time and was not really realistic to begin with, so perhaps it is properly valued now but it took a hell of long time to begin growing again.  in your opinion, what if any steps can you take to insulate yourself from these corrections if any?  Also wondering if you think certain areas of the country are safer than others and capable of weathering these storms better than other areas?

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Jerome Kaidor thanks for your input,  Interesting perspective you had to share.  I can imagine that for a period of time, that phone not ringing any longer must have been pretty scary for a while.  Glad to hear most came back and that your adjustable rate mortgage was useful.  Can't imagine using an adjustable at this time with rates so low, but I will keep that in mind if rates ever get back into that 8-10% range again.  I suspect it is only a matter of time really but hopefully it is a ways off yet.  Best of luck in the future.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    Thanks @Jay Hinrichs, once again you are full of useful insight for those of us newer to this field. I suspect maybe I completely underestimated the true impact of the Job losses and the ripple effects that cascaded outward from those losses. The whole point of my post to begin with was to help me understand the effects of the crash and to try to identify ways to insulate against the risks they posed. Seems to me that some of what I should take away from this is to not get too highly leveraged and always have the reserves in place to be able to weather any storm, even those larger than I might imagine possible. I was fortunate to have not taken the bait back in 2004 thru 2007 and get over leveraged on my primary home like so many of my neighbors, who lost houses in this market by the thousands, but as I begin my journey here in REI, you have to leverage to some extent to really get started, so I suspect its just a little bit of balancing act coupled with a little bit of savvy and a dash of good luck. With the insights and knowledge you and so many others here on BP so willingly share, I will certainly be more educated than most, so that should help as well. Thanks again for all your input. Curious why Texas values largely held as they would most certainly have also had a large population of lower wage earners similar to PDX and LV. Any suspicions or direct knowledge to share on why that was the case there?

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Joe Villeneuve, thanks for accepting my colleague request.  This is the thread I was hoping you would chime in on.  As someone who has been in this business for a long time, I imagine you had to have some valuable experience and wisdom to share about how to weather a storm such as the one we experienced through the 2008 to 2010 period.  I am particularly interested to hear about your particular experience here in Michigan specifically since we both reside and invest here locally.  Thanks in advance for your perspective and knowledge shared.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, I appreciate your points and completely understand that it is impossible to lump an entire state into one basket, but what I am trying to understand better is what is the driving force behind the differences.  If as you state, several areas are doing much better, but more urban areas might still be underwater, can that be explained away by simply class of neighborhoods, such as A/B areas are doing better while C/D areas are still struggling.  If it is as simple as this, what are the drivers of this, continued unemployment in C/D, vacancy differences, market demand forces?  I am trying to dive deeper and any insight you can provide is precisely what I need from someone who experienced the downturn directly and obviously not only survived, but thrived.  You know more than most or otherwise you wouldn't be here today as many of your counterparts at the time were swept away by the flood waters.  What did you do differently that others were not smart enough to do at the time?

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Cory Mccarthy:

    @Joe Villeneuve, thanks for accepting my colleague request.  This is the thread I was hoping you would chime in on.  As someone who has been in this business for a long time, I imagine you had to have some valuable experience and wisdom to share about how to weather a storm such as the one we experienced through the 2008 to 2010 period.  I am particularly interested to hear about your particular experience here in Michigan specifically since we both reside and invest here locally.  Thanks in advance for your perspective and knowledge shared.

     I'm not sure I can give you an answer in this format that would be complete enough...without it turning into a novel.

    However, I will hit on a few key points and falsehoods that may be the root of your  question...here goes:

    1 - Market/economy downturns affect equity, which isn't as important to cash flow since it has no real impact on it.  You mentioned the inability to refi any equity (if there is any) out, but if you did it right, you already did that much earlier in ownership.

    2 - Supply and demand comes into play here, but a downturn helps the cash flow REI since it can raise rents in some areas and because it increases the number of renters. This is another area where understanding the market (that's the zipcode market) where you invest comes into play.

    3 - If you have positive cash flow, you can always lower the rent and still have it.

    4 - If the housing prices follow the house values (uh, a little obvious...?), all that means is greater opportunities to buy...and greater cash flow since this also means the cost of your loans are less...which, stays in place as the economy (and ARV's) increase.

    5 - Equity to a cash flow REI is important when and if they want to sell, or refinance. If the property is cash flowing when the equity is lost, it doesn't change the cash flow.

    6 - You don't buy/rehab with leverage, you buy/rehab with all cash...then, refi ASAP...and yes there is a difference...a HUGE difference.

  • Rental Property Investor · Washington, DC · Member since 2015 · 278 posts · 156 votes
    10y

    My day job is in history, and I have an interest in economics, so I will take a small crack at your question.

    I'm in Washington, DC so in the city and the surrounding counties (PG Co. in MD and east of the river DC maybe exceptions) for the most part we did very well. We have a strong economy based on services to deal with a growing government (consultants, lobbyists, lawyers, etc). When the crash happened I was in a 30 year mortgage, still renting out my room to educated people.  But I knew a guy who was a RE agent who went into another career, because before, properties were like crack, they sold themselves. Before being an agent he was a waiter. Before houses in the hood sold quickly despite having a half-butt reno job. Since the crash the quality I'm seeing has greatly improved. So the crash had a sort of cleansing effect, getting rid of some people who weren't great agents.

    As an investor the crash provided an opportunity for me to buy my rental in Florida. I love, love, Marion County's willingness to put all sorts of property related info on the web. I bought a foreclosure and via one of the county's websites, I found out that the previous owner had taken a $144K mortgage out on something I bought later for less than $35K. The value of that property kept decreasing until just recently... It's provided cash flow so even if I sell it for what I bought it for, I'll say I made money.

    But I'm small potatoes and fairly conservative. I and my spouse really like our day jobs (in the history field) which are super stable. We save. So we aren't exposed to too much short term risk. The downside, no big rewards. I'm okay with that.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Cory Mccarthy  Texas = JOBS  is why prices held.

    Although I had many a debate with those that were buying in 2010.

    was it better to buy in Atlanta or Vegas or Phx  houses that the prices crashed and and were selling at 25% of their highs.. or did you drink the cool aid and think that since Texas prices remained relatively stable its a better place to invest.

    As it turns out Texas has had some run up with prices.. But the answer was  ATL  LAS  PHX were far better plays at that time because the values in many instances have doubled and tripled. were TExas never dropped but it never has really rose either.

    So it really is regional. I did over 200 HML in Wayne co MI.. and we were seeing in 04 apprasials at 120 to 140k and making HML at 65 to 80k our buy and hold clients refi at 75 to 95k the BRRR method which some seem to think is new but is really not.

    then we saw those prices by 09 drop to 10 to 30k... so those investors who also lost tenants pretty much got wiped out.  

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, thanks for the reply, that is some great advice and I think a great formula for insulating against economic shocks: long term perspective that is not overly leveraged in non-urban A/B markets.  I think that is priceless advice and one that can truly minimize risk.  There is no such thing as risk free, otherwise none of us would ever make any money, but carefully balancing risk & reward is sound & prudent advice to me.  Thanks for simplifying this in such a concise answer.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    thank you @Joe Villeneuve, you really know how to hit the target right in the bullseye with all of your answers.  Your insight is exactly what I needed and really hit on exactly what I was thinking.   If you are in cash flow property that has been properly researched and executed and you have a long term perspective, you are likely to be well positioned to weather a storm and in fact could benefit greatly from the corresponding fallout.   There were clearly many negative impacts to the crash, but they hit different regions, different classes of properties, and different investor in very different ways.  And like any pendulum, there were equal and offsetting positives that also were spurned by this collapse albeit these were somewhat delayed just like they are with the cycles of any pendulum.  If properly positioned heading into the storm though, you were likely also to be well positioned to benefit from the positive side effects that resulted from the corresponding market corrections which inevitably followed.  In A/B markets, available potential renter base did not shrink nearly as much as in C/D areas as unemployment wasn't hit to the same degree, you had already taken out your available equity, so when values fell, you didn't have to give money back since you were locked in, cash flow remained relatively stable since CF is not impacted by property value directly, and there was still a relatively strong base of renters, in fact perhaps somewhat increasing eventually as some lost their homes.  And so when values fell, there was little to no impact on on your cashflows, so you thrived throughout the downturn and simply had to wait out the storm and wait for the eventual correction to come about (i.e. Execute your long term perspective). Then when things started to turn around, A/B market values were generally quicker to rebound, you were able to take advantage of increased rents, lower property values, cheaper money, etc.  Sounds very similar to @Account Closed's formula for risk mitigation.  Thanks again for both of your perspectives and advice.

  • Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2015 · 142 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    thanks @M Marie M. for your input.  Glad to hear you're an historian instead of a politician, and that you were somehow able to thrive and benefit from the collapse.  Shocker to hear that the area around DC thrived thru the downturn! At least the areas where the politicians and lobbyists typically live, but still sounds like the C/D areas suffered along with all the rest of the country.  Strange how that works, huh?  Funny how the politicians of the world can benefit the most by directly causing one of the worst economic collapses in history by artificially impacting markets and then the gov is probably the only sector to have grown exponentially thru this period as a result.  Go figure...

  • Eric FernwoodBusiness Member
    Realtor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2014 · 999 posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Hello @Cory Mccarthy,

    You posted an excellent question but one without a simple answer. 

    Investors were likely to be impacted by the 2008 crash in two different ways. First, if you sold the property during the crash under most conditions you would have lost money. However, if the property was still generating a positive cash flow during the crash few people would choose to sell so I will ignore this potential impact.

    The main challenge for many investors was that they started losing money due to falling rents and rising vacancies. However, not every property in every location fared the same. Las Vegas was one of the hardest hit cities in the US during the 2008 market crash. And, if you only looked at the unemployment rate and number of foreclosures in Las Vegas, you would expect all Las Vegas investors took a terrible beating. However, our clients reported that rents and time to rent did not change. When one of our clients asked for specifics we dug into the data. In order to answer her question we analyzed sales and rentals during the 2008 to 2014 period ourselves. 

    One of the more common mistakes people made when doing such a study is to combine everything together and compute an average. Usually, the results of such averaging will be of little value. For example, would you be comfortable living in an environment with an average temperature of 70°F? Sounds pretty good? What if I told you that the day time temperature is 450°F and the night time temperature is -310°F? The average is 70°( (450 - 310)/2 = 70°).

    In order to provide valid data we narrowed our research to the typical properties the majority of our clients purchased. The property profile we used is as follows:

    • Single family
    • 3 bedrooms
    • 2 car garage
    • 1,200 to 1,500 SqFt

    We also restricted the geographical area to the region marked in green below.


    Restricting the data to this property profile and area matched the majority of our investors at that time, which would be considered A or B class properties.

    We started by exporting data from the MLS for conforming properties that sold and leased during the period between 2008 and 2014. We computed the average $/SqFt by month and plotted the results as shown in the graph below.

    As you can see, the average $/SqFt sales price plunged by almost 50%. What happened to the average $/SqFt rental price? As you can see below, rental rates (and time to rent) remained virtually unchanged.

    Our clients who purchased investment properties prior to 2008 saw little or no change in cash flow or time to rent. However, C class properties did not do well. Depending on the area, class C properties vacancy rate increased to over 20% and rents fell as well. Why did Class A and B properties do well while Class C properties did so badly? 

    Location and price range will primarily attract a specific tenant pool. In 2008, Class C properties, which generally rented in the range of $450/Mo. to $700/Mo., were largely occupied by construction workers and service workers. When construction virtually stopped in 2008, a great many of these people became unemployed and thus the high vacancy rate and falling rents. However, the tenant pool for Class A and B properties, which generally rented in the range of $1000/Mo. to $1400/Mo., suffered income reductions but comparatively few became unemployed compared to the tenant pool for Class C properties. So while the tenant pool for Class A & B typically had reduced income, they chose to prioritize paying the rent. Why? Based on our research we believe that the reason the rental market was so stable had to do with the eviction laws in Las Vegas, in addition to job stability. 

    In order for a tenant to consistently pay rent they have to have both the ability to pay and the willingness to pay. If the tenant pool remains employed, even at a reduced rate, they have the ability to pay because of the income requirements required by the property manager we work with. The willingness to use limited financial resources was largely due to our eviction laws. 

    For example, in California it can take up to one year to evict a non-paying tenant. So, if the tenant has limited financial resources, they know that they can skip paying the rent for months with little risk of being evicted. In Las Vegas, a typical eviction takes less than 30 days and costs less than $500. Tenants know this so they prioritize paying the rent because they know that they will be quickly evicted. 

    In summary, we came to the following conclusions:

    • Not all jobs were affected equally in the 2008 crash. Metro averages do not provide a reliable indication for any specific tenant pool.
    • Some business sectors/occupations were hurt less than others. You need to consider how the business sectors which employ your target tenant pool are likely to perform in a downturn.
    • Tenants pay rent when they have the ability and willingness to pay the rent. Local eviction laws can play a significant role in ensuring the rent is paid on schedule.
    • The typical hold time for real estate is 10+ years. What can be a great investment today can become a financial disaster if the market changes. You need to look at both the return today and what it is likely to be in the foreseeable future.
    • Careful selection of properties which the tenant pool found highly desirable enabled properties to still rent quickly during this turbulent period.

    I hope this helps, Cory. Best of luck to your success.

    FERNWOOD Team, KW VIP Realty520 Reviews
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