Peak Rent 2015?

[Doug N.]

Hello Smart BP Folks -

I am reading one of my favorite economist bloggers - Bll McBride at Calculated Risk - and I see an interesting article about rents and renters. I'm curious to see if anyone has some input on these issues - right, wrong or indifferent - esp if they are active in the market, like Jay and a few others. 

Some snippets:

...our office remains skeptical that all of the shift into rental is permanent, even from a taste or preference stand point. When the Millennials do settle down, get married, have a couple of kids — at a later age than previous generations — we know single family with good schools looks a lot more attractive. Even so, it does look like most of the increase in rentals is likely to be permanent, particularly in light of the fact that no economist or housing expect I know is predicting a return to the pattern of development and growth seen during much of the past few decades.

and 

the biggest takeaway I have from this work, is that in growing, popular areas like Portland, even if the market shifts back toward ownership somewhat, overall demand will increase for both [ownership and rentals]. This is simply due to overall population growth.

Sources:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/10/lehner-is-2015-peak-renter.html

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2015/10/12/2015peakrenter/

Thanks for your insights!