Help with determining ARV in Washington, DC

[Marcela Correa]

Dear BPers,

Our third project has been on the market for 70+ days and hasn't sold. DC is a pretty hot market so this is a bad sign. (...Don't want to get into a discussion of that deal on this post though.)

As a result, I am doubting my comps analysis for a potential fourth project. I'd greatly appreciate input--from those familiar with the DC market--on a projected ARV on the following deal:

House is on the 1000 block of 3rd St. NE, less than 5 blocks to NOMA metro, Giant supermarket, and at the heart of the H St. corridor.

Seller is asking (off market): $475k

Rehab costs: Approx $200k

House is a regular wardman-style, 3 level, 1400 sf with a front porch a little above grade. It will be a high quality renovation resulting in 3 bdrm/2.5 baths, open floor plan, gourmet kitchen, parking space in rear with overhead deck and a small one bedroom rental in the basement. No yard. 

I see a wide range of comps. What do you think?