Atlanta Market

[Michael Holmes]

Hello. I am curious to know why people might consider now a bad time to purchase real estate in the Atlanta market (more specifically in Acworth, Kennesaw or Woodstock). On the one hand I have read some recent reports about how most investors are viewed as exiting the market because they bought between 2009 to 2013 and now is the time they are cashing out; however, on the other hand I have tried to buy cheaper (80 to 120k) houses in recent weeks and I've experienced what many folks have experienced as well. The house in question has a pending offer on it - in what feels like - before it is listed, and typically other investors are grabbing the deal. Every house sale has a different story, but supply seems ridiculously tight. And buying in a seller's market feels wrong. I've also read that new housing construction will be climbing back up to annual (1.5m per year) levels in the next few years, and this should, in part, provide some sales price relief. 

I am no self-proclaimed expert on economics or real estate; however, I do own several paid-for rentals, and I am considering the idea of turning my current paid-for residence into another rental, moving into a new personal home upgrade. But I hesitate at the idea of buying a larger home in today's market because it feels like another mountain climb is occurring, and I prefer to buy in a valley. I would hate to purchase a 300k home at 4k feet on a 5k mountain, only for its value to decline to 3k feet in six months when interest rates start their climb going forward. Have I missed the window of opportunity, and should I wait a few years to see what the market will do? There is a lot more I could say, but I didn't want to post a wall of text that many people may not read. I hope the general idea comes across well, and thanks!

[Rick Baggenstoss]

@Michael Holmes  Love your question.  Only time will tell what the right answer is.

I'll give a quick answer now and hope more folks will weigh in.

IMHO, Kennesaw and Acworth are still somewhat early in their recovery, so they do have a long way to go and grow.  I think the sensitivity to a recession is greater as you go to the newer and poorer parts of Metro Atlanta.  As employment rates pick up, KSU, and other major growth drivers pick up, I think you'll see the area kick into an even higher gear.  

Who knows what will stop the growth in that area?  I'd bet on sustained, moderate growth because of the massive amount of developable land.  Rentals convenient to KSU seem like a great idea to me.