How much cash flow could one get with $150k starting capital?

How much cash flow could one get with $150k starting capital?

Washington, D.C. · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 9 votes

One of my friends who has had to listen to my incessant ranting about REI had a question for me the other day, and I felt sheepish that I had no idea how to answer him. My plans are largely centered around SFH buy and hold, long-term investing, and my knowledge ends there. He is well-to-do and has money saved up, and was curious about how much cash flow he could get with it in the short-term.

So, my question is this: if you had $150k in capital to blow, were just starting out, and you were mostly concerned about getting the max amount of cash flow in the near future (and if possible setting yourself up to get some more long-term benefits) what would you do? 

Two extra criteria.....he lives in the Washington DC metro area, so things are pricey (but probably willing to look farther out) and seems averse to house flipping.

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Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
12y

@Joe Villeneuve you're claiming that ALL Expenses, ALL vacancy and ALL capital amount to $330 out of $975 of rent.  That's 33%.  You may well have seen those sort of numbers.  Two very large datasets that have been posted here in the past that covered hundreds of thousands of units do not support that number.  That number is unrealistically low.  That's the kind of number turnkey sellers use to sucker in naive investors who don't know better.  Building a business based on that number will result in failure when the cows really come home and those big capital items start hitting.  If you're building a portfolio of properties you WILL be replacing roofs, appliances, furnaces, and sewer lines on an ongoing basis.  You WILL have tenants that wreck the place.  You will have lengthy and expensive evictions.  

First time I every shot craps I started with $200 and walked away with a purple, $500 chip.  But I'm not naive enough to think that's a normal outcome.

So, @James Z. use whatever assumptions you want when making investments. I personally do not use a number like Joe's unless I'm willing to manage the property myself and willing to contribute that labor for free. No matter what assumptions you make up front reality will be whatever it will be. If you have just a few properties you may get lucky like I did at that craps table and have very low expenses. Or you might have a really big expense like I did on one of my properties last year where I spent over 50% of the year's rent just replacing a sewer line. This business is chock full of property listings that say "this cash flows" when all the seller or their agent really means is "if you put 20% down and get a 30 year fixed rate loan the PITI will be less than the rent."

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  • Curt DavisBusiness Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Memphis, TN · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    12y

    It all depends on where he buys property and what price range.  Would he be a cash buyer or doing financing?   You can get better cash flow on cheaper homes but long term they are not better.  

    Curt Davis - KAIZEN Realty538 Reviews
  • Washington, D.C. · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 9 votes
    12y

    He understands the concept of leverage, so I assume financing.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    12y

    short term deals = fix and flip  not buy and hold

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    12y

    You said cash flow, which implies rental property...is that what you meant?

    In my experience, without too much risk and in many areas of the country, it's possible -- with leverage -- to generate about 15% cash-on-cash returns via rental property.  Certainly, there are places and types of properties where that number is going to be much less and certainly there are places (and types of properties) where that number is going to be much more...but in general, I think 15% is a good, safe number to use for pie-in-the-sky analysis.

    That said, with $150,000 invested at a 15% leveraged cash-on-cash return and not being overly active, that's about $22,500 in pre-tax cash flow annually.

    Now, if he wanted to flip houses, that return could potentially increase to 30-40% -- this wouldn't be considered cash flow (it would be earned income), but could potentially get him closer to $50K/year with some work and without having to be ridiculously creative with financing.

    As a lender, he could probably make 15-18%, so that would be on the order of $25K, but again, not cash flow.

  • Salem, OR · Member since 2013 · 701 posts · 159 votes
    12y

    If you count all expenses including maintenance, capital expenditures and management most investors are getting 6% to 10%.  This is pre-tax so doesn't not include the benefit of being able to defer taxes because of depreciation.  Also, it doesn't include appreciation that is realized when selling.

    If you are willing to put only 20% down and borrow the rest at 5% you would earn 4% to 24% under the above cap rates.  You would be paying down principal as well.  Appreciation would increase returns since the appreciation is on the entire value of property.

    Just my opinion and hope it gives you some ball park figures.

    Bill

  • Washington, D.C. · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 9 votes
    12y

    I misused the word short-term...I suppose I mean long-term but with an extreme emphasis on cashflow. A small apartment building, maybe? 

  • Rental Property Investor · The Woodlands, TX · Member since 2014 · 345 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    I don't know much about the D.C. market.... but in my market, $150,000 leveraged would net a very conservative $3,000/mo in positive cash flow....

    using very basic figures (not including closing costs or rehab)

    $25,000 down payment (20%) to purchase 6 - $125,000 homes with 30 yr mortgages will yield $500/mo/each =$3,000/mo. 

  • Washington, D.C. · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 9 votes
    12y

    Sorry for my late response, was typing that just before @J Scott  posted.

    I was hesitant to suggest rental property, as I think the DC market has skewed my understanding of rental properties....to my understanding (I am rather new though) 15% cash-on-cash return seems very difficult to achieve, without driving an hour+ from the city. Maybe that's just the answer.

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    James,

    It all comes down to the market.  You mentioned this person would be willing to go further out.  How far is "further out"?  If the answer is out of state, then you could get at least $2k on that $150k cash.  

    The best answer I can give you is based on experience in my area...unlimited, and not actually spend it.  The beauty of cash, if you or a partner has good credit, is that you never have to spend it...just use it.  The idea is to put the cash in, then refinance it all back out.  Then use it again, and keep repeating this until you get tired of doing it.

    In my area, the magic number per house is $50k, so your $150k would go three times a far.  In other areas, the cost for that same house would be higher, but I would think that $150k would buy/rehab at least one house in most of those other areas.  All you need is to start with one house...and just keep repeating the process.

    Albert Einstein once said that "The greatest invention of the 20th century was compound interest".  Compounding is just a form of duplication...but on steroids.  If you approach your investing like I described, you too could be investing on steroids.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapsystem
    A2REIC

  • Investor · Waynesville, NC · Member since 2014 · 408 posts · 121 votes
    12y

    @Jeff Wallace  can you elaborate on those numbers a little more? What are the rents and what are the expenses? Thanks in advance!

  • Washington, D.C. · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 9 votes
    12y

    I'm honestly kind of surprised by these responses, thus far my education has lead me to believe there is little cash flow in SFH, and that they are more about just building wealth over decades. From what some of you are saying it seems like if you look in the right places you can get a fair amount of both of these goals. My original question was regarding someone else, but it seems that the answer to it might suit both of our needs.

    So thanks everyone for your input...but by all means keep going if you want, I'm learning a lot from this.

  • Investor · Fort Washington, MD · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    Man, you all are full of knowledge.

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    Austin & James,

    Cash is King...always has been.  It used to be, way back before the year 2000, that if you had a house CF over $50/month you would happy, and rationalized it to be a good investment because of depreciation and appreciation.  Sorry, I never thought that was a winning formula...and the crash preved that right.

    Now, at least in my area, if you can't get a house to CF over $400/month with PM and financing, you're not doing it right.  I know there are other areas of the country where this is also true, but it seemed as if we experienced the "perfect storm" for investors over the past 5-10 years...and I don't see an end coming anytime soon.

    Austin, you were asking for more specifics.  Here goes with a deal we are in the process of making (all numbers have already been confirmed & PA signed of by buyer/seller):

    • $42,500 All cost (cash deal.  Didn't have to be...just the way we do it)
    • $68,000 ARV/LTV
    • $54,400 80%ARV/LTV (for refinancing purposes)
    • $975/m  Rent
    • $238      REFI loan pymt (4.875%/30yrs/$35,000)
    • $210      T/I
    • $120      PM/Maint/Misc
    • $400+    CASH FLOW/month

    If we take out cash at closing (there's room to do it here) the CF would go down, but we could access our equity (tax free) and use it on the next house...or just keep it.

    This is a pretty typical deal too.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapsystem

    A2REIC

  • Rental Property Investor · The Woodlands, TX · Member since 2014 · 345 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed 

    The last three long term rentals I have recently acquired (1 for me and the other 2 I assisted friends with the transaction) were recent construction (5-7 years old) in good neighborhoods. 

    1) purchased for $100,000 valued at $140,000 - 30yr mortgage payment with escrow $700. it leases for $1450

    $750/mo positive cash excluding vacancy, maintenance, etc. (I manage my own properties)

    2) Purchase - $120,000 valued at $135,000 (he paid closer to retail because used the home as a stepping stone between primary residences).  Payment with escrow $900. Lease $1400.

    $500/mo excluding vacancy.... etc.

    3) Purchase - $90,000 valued at $125,000 - Payment $550 Leases at $1,200/mo

    $650/mo

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    Jeff,  Are these deals financed or cash deals?

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapsystem
    A2REIC

  • Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 15 posts · 1 vote
    12y

    @J Scott 

    Can you elaborate how to find a borrower or broker that pays 15%-18% rate? Is it mezzanine loan?

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    12y
    • $42,500 All cost (cash deal. Didn't have to be...just the way we do it)
    • $68,000 ARV/LTV
    • $54,400 80%ARV/LTV (for refinancing purposes)
    • $975/m Rent
    • $238 REFI loan pymt (4.875%/30yrs/$35,000)
    • $210 T/I
    • $120 PM/Maint/Misc
    • $400+ CASH FLOW/month

    Sorry, @Joe Villeneuve but I don't buy those numbers.  They're very optimistic.   A more realistic assessment of this deal would be that all expenses, vacancy and capital are going to average move like $587.50 per month over the long term and for a large portfolio.  With the $238 P&I payment that leaves true cash flow closer to $250 a month than $400.  That's still a very good deal.

    Further, you're assuming you can to a cash out conventional refi.  Freddie isn't doing those at all.  Fannie will do them only if you have four or fewer financed properties OR if you're doing it in under six months from the purchase.  You show using a new appraisal for the refi and many banks won't do those in less than six months or a year.  So while you can do that for a property or two, you won't do it for any significant numbers.

    So, while a buyer might do what you describe for a few properties, that math doesn't scale to any significant portfolio. A more realistic assessment would use a portfolio lender doing a 75% LTV loan at the purchase and funding rehab out of pocket. And getting a 15 year fixed rate loan.

    I think @J Scott is being a little optimistic with his 15% cash on cash number.  Its possible in some areas, but I think overall a 10% number is more realistic.  Even that is unachievable in MOST areas.  So you have to be willing to go at a distance.  Personally, I don't even consider buying where cash on cash is below that.  My goal is to make money, not own property.  That said, appreciation can be significant, and isn't accounted for at all with that cash on cash number.  With a 10% cash on cash return a $150K nest egg would give you $15K a year in returns.

  • Investor · Clairemont, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @James Z.:

    I'm honestly kind of surprised by these responses, thus far my education has lead me to believe there is little cash flow in SFH, and that they are more about just building wealth over decades. From what some of you are saying it seems like if you look in the right places you can get a fair amount of both of these goals. My original question was regarding someone else, but it seems that the answer to it might suit both of our needs.

    So thanks everyone for your input...but by all means keep going if you want, I'm learning a lot from this.

    You have to realize your "view" of long term wealth is truly correct. While SFR rentals can easily return 15%, it is often very small amounts...at least starting out.

    Look at it this way, you don't have access to 150K. Most save up money for a 20% down payment on their first rental, so let's say you buy something in the 80K range and it rents for about $1050/mo. You'll need about 20K saved (for reserves plus purchase) of which 16K will go to your down payment. That will earn you a cool $200 or so a month after accounting for future capital expenditure reserves. So how does $2400 a year sound on your $16K investment????

    That is a 15% return, now when you start off it seems slow but get to 3-6 properties and continue to save money for DP and all the sudden that snow ball is rolling where you can actually have a decent bit of money each month that you could live on if you chose to.

    In your example your friend just has the ability to jump start this process since he has significant enough cash that 15% return will return 5 figures a year. As opposed to most people when their first acquisition doesn't even make their car payment each month. 

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    Sorry Jon, but these numbers are not assumptions.  Everything stated in the post above happens on a regular basis every day here...which is probably why there are so many "out of state", and "out of country" investors investing here.

    The 80% refi I spoke of, is what we use.

    The Cash Flow I gave you, is the minimum we will move forward with...and I'm living in a target rich environment. I have another one where the cost was at $135k (ARV=$180). We are going to refi a little over the $135k, and the 4 bed house will CF about $1100/month. This is because it will be rented to med students by the room.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapsystem
    A2REIC

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:

    The 80% refi I spoke of, is what we use.

     What bank do you use?

  • Bedford, NH · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    My credit union will do something close to what Joe is talking about, but only for larger loans, and with recourse to other properties and personal guarantee.  So I think it is possible under the right circumstances, but only once you reach a certain scale.  I'm not sure exactly how it works, because I am not at that scale.

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    J Scott,

    When I use Bank financing I use 1stMerit. They give me 75% LTV/ARV on a NOO Refi, 30 years at around 5% (only 4 loans though).

    My 80% source is a Private Broker.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapSystem
    A2REIC

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    Richard,

    Some of the members of our REI group use this funding for their first deal.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapSystem
    A2REIC

  • Bedford, NH · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    I'm not doubting you Joe, I'm just saying the only source I am familiar with that does something close to what you are doing does so only for larger amounts.  And I think there is a minimum amount that needs to be held in one of their deposit accounts as well.

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    12y

    Richard,  Didn't think you were doubting me, just wanted to clarify.  I used to be one of many that searched for this type of funding only to be frustrated in the attempt.  It's there, and I bet it's everywhere.  I figured I had to keep looking.  Funny thing is, I didn't find it, it found me.  LOL.

    Joe Villeneuve
    REcapSystem
    A2REIC

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