At what point does a house's appreciation slow down?

[Andrew S.]

I am looking to purchase a single-family home in Irvine, CA, just below the $2M price range. My goal is to maximize appreciation over the next 10-20 years. I am particularly interested in single-family homes above 2000 sqft with larger backyards (~4000 sqft lot), because that's what I like since I will live there, but these are really old. I may be open to changing to something else if appreciation is better with a different option. So I'm curious how does the rate of appreciation change over time? My guess is that it slows down when a house reaches a certain age since it may be less desirable? But old homes may also be built in more convenient, central areas so I'm not sure. I am weighing three different options:

Option 1: Older Homes with Larger Lots (Built ~40+ Years Ago)

• Price: ~$1.8M
• Lot Size: ~4000 sqft
• Home Size: 2000+ sqft
  Pros: Large lot, most convenient location to the rest of OC and LA
• Cons: Old and probably beat up

Option 2: Newer Resale Homes with Smaller Lots (Built Within the Past 25 Years)

• Price: ~$1.8M
• Lot Size: Home size + ~200 - 600 sqft 
• Home Size: Varies but typically 2000+ sqft
  Pros: Not falling apart (yet?), Location in the heart of Irvine. Somewhat close to OC and LA
  Cons: Really close to neighbor, tiny yard

Option 3: Brand New Homes in Great Park with Small Lots

• Price: ~$1.8M
• Lot Size: Small (comparable to Option 2)
• Home Size: 2800 sqft, 3 stories
  Pros: New!, Very spacious interiors and option to have 3 stories. Close to park
  Cons: Mello Roos Tax adds 0.6% to annual tax. Tiny yard, not sure about quality of construction, Really close to neighbor, Kind of far from rest of Irvine. Quite far from rest of OC and LA

I would greatly appreciate any thoughts on how these three types of homes might appreciate differently over the next 10-20 years. Thank you!