Sell primary residence or keep as rental

[Pradeep Prabakar Ravindran]

Hi forum,

I am a first time poster here and I would really love some advise on my situation. I currently own a 3Bed / 3Bath duet style home in the Bay Area. I got a job offer in the Northern Virginia area and I am planning to relocate there. I am in a conundrum on whether I should sell my home or rent it out. 

Here are some details that might be helpful

Mortgage - 2920 (2.875% interest rate), Property taxes - 1000 per month approximately, HOA - 450 per month, insurance 150 per month

The maximum rental that I can get for this property would be around 4000 per month. 

From my estimations considering vacancy rates, cost of maintenance etc - I would be at a cashflow negative of around 1300 - 1500 dollars per month. I am also assuming that I will hire a property manager.

My house has appreciated quite a bit since the time I had bought it in 2020 for 870k and right now its probably worth around 1.2million. The house is in a pretty great neighborhood with excellent schools and options to commute to most parts of the bay area and I am confident that I will be able to rent it out soon. 

The area here is pretty desirable and typically houses have appreciated around 5%. Even though the cashflow is negative now, would it make sense to hold the property for potential appreciation ? I am also nervous about my move to the DC area wont work out and I will have this house as an option in case I want to return to the bay area and will never be able purchase a similar home if I sell it.